The latest round in the $2M debate

Here's what I'll be submitting at 4pm PST today. Let me know if you have any suggestions in the comments before 4pm PST Saturday, Jan 25, 2025.

The $2M bet

My job is to prove the vaccines have killed more people than they saved in the US in 2021 and 2022.

Excess Killed=[Change in COVID Cases]*[change in CaseFatalityRate] + [increase in ACM caused by the shots]

My claim is that the shots caused all three variables to increase in both years (compared with a placebo vaccine) which means the intervention was net harmful. The effects are detailed in the table below.

Summary table

Typo: 266K should be 266M in column 4.

Cases were higher in both 2021-2022 for the vaccinated

1. CDC state and county case data: x-axis=vax rate. y-axis=relative # of cases to baseline. Regression shows >1.5X higher cases in 2021, and >2X higher cases in 2022. 95% confidence slope increased in both years over baseline in BOTH all state and all county data. This is dispositive as there is nothing that is more fundamental than this data to resolve the question of cases. More vaccines→ more cases in both years.

2. Cleveland Clinic (CC) study: Saar’s attempts to discredit this study are flawed since his 2 objections were addressed in the second CC study and his third argument was nonsensical. So the results in Table 2 of the original paper remain undisputed.

3. There were 7 other studies which found the same effect as the first 2 CC studies: here, here, here, here, here, here, here.

4. New Japan study shows more vaccines→more cases as well: “The odds of contracting COVID-19 increased with the number of vaccine doses: one to two doses (OR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.08-2.46, p = 0.020), three to four doses (OR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.35-3.08, p = 0.001), and five to seven doses (OR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.07-4.56, p = 0.033).” This is consistent with Table 2 in the CC study.

5. CDC/NIH study: The ONLY statistically significant results were: vax increases infection risk, natural infection lowers infection risk. Never in human history does a vax make things risk worse in kids and better in adults. Table 2 confirmed CC findings: prior infection reduces risk; prior vaccination increases risk.

6. Harvard (Subramanian (2021) was 68 countries. 90% slope CI was [2.83, 25.02] so we are 90% confident that the vaccine INCREASED infections across 68 different nations in September 2021. Data here.

7. Independent survey of 500 Americans on COVID infections done by third party firm PureProfile: More vaccine doses→ higher risk of infection and number of infections.

8. Pantazatos study: US data shows more vaccines → higher COVID death, case, and ACM deaths.

9. 13,000 person survey: Consistent with CC study: more vaccines→ more cases.

10. Workplace survey: Hard to find a workplace where unvaccinated had more cases than vaccinated (just 1 out of 84). Can Saar show a survey with inverse results? Why not?

Vaccination caused at least 1 ACM death per 1,000 vaccinated (on average)

1. Skidmore (2023): 289,789 (95% CI: 229,319 – 344,319) were killed by the shots in 2021 alone. He didn’t look at 2022.

2. Czech Republic record level data: Moderna recipients had an average >1.3X higher 1 yr mortality than Pfizer during non-COVID months. Setting DCCI=0 for both vaccines didn’t change the results so wasn’t comorbidity bias. Since Moderna was 40% of US vaccines, a 30% increase in ACM is an annual 12% increase in mortality which is consistent with Skidmore.

3. Hungary study:Moderna had 18% higher ACM during non-COVID periods than Pfizer. It would have been larger had the groups been evenly distributed, but the paper noted Pfizer got older people with more comorbidities. So 18% excess ACM is a minimum→ 7% annual US mortality increase from Moderna alone (assuming Pfizer is 100% safe) which is 195K excess deaths/yr which is consistent with Skidmore.

4. VAERS: Recorded 1.5X more deaths per dose for Moderna vs. Pfizer.

5. EUDRA: Recorded 2.4X more deaths per dose for Moderna vs. Pfizer

6. Mechanism of action for the increased mortality: Moderna has 3X more active ingredient (mRNA) than Pfizer.

7. VAERS: URF for obvious legally required events is over 30 (see calculations). Over 15,000 excess death reports in the first 2 years→ 450,000 excess deaths over 2 years (consistent again with Skidmore).

8. 99M study: OE for myocarditis in the same age group was 2.8X higher for Moderna. Myocarditis can be fatal. This isn’t proof of a mortality ratio, just a confirmation of the other results that Moderna was the more deadly vaccine.

9. Embalmers are still finding the novel blood clots in vaccinated cases even now in 2025 suggesting a VERY long kill period for the vaccine.These clots can easily kill people. NEVER SEEN BEFORE COVID VACCINE ROLLOUT. For example, Hirschman has been seeing these clots in over 50% of his cases since 2021 when he first noticed them and only in the last 3 months, has it dipped under 50%. These clots aren’t killing everyone who has them, but this is demonstrating a plausible mechanism of action for vaccine deaths happening years after vaccination.

10. Rasmussen, a highly respected national polling company, found 11% of American households lost someone to COVID vs. 10% of American households lost someone to the COVID vaccine. The result was INDEPENDENT of political parties. There are no public polls showing otherwise. I’m claiming only that the vaccines killed 57% of those killed by COVID which is more modest than the 80% ratio (vaccine/covid deaths) found in the Rasmussen poll.

11. There were just over 1M excess deaths in (2021+2022) vs. 2019 baseline. My vaccine related deaths (415K) are well within this number. This means the vaccines killed nearly as many people as COVID during the period (720K).

CFR increased by 9% in 2021 right after the vaccine rollout

The CDPH chart remains unchallenged. CFR went up by 9% right at vaccine rollout and remained elevated.

Did I convince you?

Summary

Please let me know in the comments if you think there is anything I should add or remove.

I wouldn’t want to be on the other side of this argument!