Santa Clara County non-COVID all-cause mortality increased 50% over baseline in elderly in Q1 of 2021

A FOIA response from Santa Clara County reveals large, statistically significant, non-COVID all-cause mortality increase in the quarter that the COVID shots rolled out for the elderly.

Abstract

All-cause and COVID mortality data obtained from Santa Clara County reveals that the non-COVID all-cause mortality (NCACM) for the elderly was elevated by more than 50% vs. baseline. The results were highly statistically significant with the largest Z-score being over 12. The public health department declined to offer an explanation for the increase. The only novel intervention that we are aware of that could have caused such a large increase was the rollout of the COVID vaccines. This is consistent with conclusions in the Hulscher paper. The precautionary principle of medicine requires that the vaccines be halted for the elderly until the cause of these excess deaths can be determined.

Methods

All-cause mortality and COVID mortality numbers were obtained under Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request from Santa Clara County.

The spreadsheet with the data is available here.

The data was provided quarterly from 2018 to 2023. Small numbers were truncated. The data was in 10 year age categories starting with under 19 and under and ending with 90+.

The non-COVID ACM was computed by subtracting the COVID deaths from the all-cause deaths.

A Q1 baseline was computed from 2018 to 2020 by averaging the number of deaths in those years. The ratio of Q1 2021 deaths were compared with the baseline and a Z-score was computed for each value.

All the computations are available in this spreadsheet.

Results

The results are summarized in this table in the spreadsheet:

We note that those over 60 years old were prioritized for COVID vaccination in Q1 of 2021. There was a 58% increase in the number of deaths for 70-79 year olds for non-COVID deaths. The Z-score was 12.3 which indicates that the increase was highly statistically significant.

The only intervention we are aware of that could cause an increase in non-COVID mortality is the COVID vaccine shots; these were widely deployed to the elderly population in Santa Clara County during that period.

Although this table looks only at non-COVID all-cause mortality, other Santa Clara County data showed a 2.6X increase in the COVID case fatality rate after the COVID vaccines rolled out that was highly statistically significant. So it’s unlikely there was a benefit.

The increase over baseline should be taken very seriously and should be very troubling to health authorities.

When we asked for an explanation, we were told that the Public Health Department declined to comment.

Conclusion

We hypothesize that the increase was due to the COVID vaccines.

This is supported by a study of deaths post-vaccine done by Hulscher which is now published in the scientific literature after passing two rounds of peer-review at two different journals. That study showed non-COVID all-cause mortality in 74% of the cases published in the peer-reviewed literature was associated with the COVID vaccine.

Since no alternate hypothesis has been offered by the health authorities, the precautionary principle of medicine dictates that the medical community should stop recommending these shots for the elderly until there is a more likely explanation for the observed non-COVID all-cause mortality increase because the increase is higher than the risk of death from COVID.