Researchers have never looked at autism onset rates post vaccine in the short term
There is only one study that looked at temporal association and it was done 25 years ago. They used broad timeframes (years). Compare that to what a quick survey on X showed.
Executive summary
There was only one study (Taylor (1999)) looking at temporal proximity of vaccination to autism onset.
It NEVER looked at symptom onset rates within 1 week after the shot.
Instead, they used 1 to 2 year timeframes.
Their study showed it took an average of 19 months before first symptoms until a clinical diagnosis was entered into the medical records.
THE STUDY NEVER TALKED TO ANY OF THE PARENTS, they relied exclusively on what is in the medical records.
So what do parents say if you ask them directly? That 90% of the cases happened within 1 week of a vaccine shot.
But what parents say are considered “anecdotes” by the scientific community and what is in the medical records is considered “science.”
This is why there is a huge disconnect between reality and “science.”
The paper
Autism and measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine: no epidemiological evidence for a causal association , Taylor et al., 1999 in The Lancet.
Key table showing a 19 month gap between the age at regression until it was diagnosed officially:
And then they only looked at 1 and 2 year time frames and relied solely on medical records. They never talked to any parent directly to see if the medical records accurately reflected what happened. This is considered high quality research. Why get your feet wet with a little reality?
But when you have a mean of 19 months from onset to diagnosis, most of the cases will naturally be more than a year from the shot which is what they found as you can see below where 138 cases were diagnosed within 24 months of the shot but only 31 cases within 12 months. It’s all because doctors take forever to make a diagnosis, not because onset happen >1 year from the shot.
Here’s what happens when you directly ask the parents what they observe
90% of the parents who recall when it happened, recall that it happened within a week after vaccination.
What happens when you ask parents in PERSON? Nearly every hand in the room goes up!
They’ve done surveys like I did above at AutismOne conferences. AutismOne Conferences are the most comprehensive autism conferences in the world.
What happens? Nearly everyone raises their hand about their child having onset within days after getting a vaccine.
If you were at one of these conferences and saw this first hand, please let me know in the comments what happened. And don’t worry, your observation is just an anecdote. :)
Here’s the first to reply:
And check out this comment:
Polly Tommey’s statistics (the Vaxxed Bus)
Polly Tommey is known for Vaxxed: From Cover-Up to Catastrophe (2016), Vaxxed III: Authorized to Kill (2024) and Vaxxed II: The People's Truth (2019).
She has nterviewed about 5,000 parents whose kids have autism caused by vaccines.
In all but 2 cases, it happened within 1 week of the shot.
OK, I get there is selection bias because people seeking out Polly are going to believe their child was vaccine injured, but nearly all in under a 1 week?
Come on. If this was coincidence, she’d be seeing cases happening 8 days later, 9 days later, etc. There wouldn’t be this sharp cutoff.
What happens if you post a video of that question being asked?
It’s censored of course! That’s how “science” works.
But that’s just an “anecdote” and “science” says we can safely ignore it, right?
Summary
The Taylor study researchers wrote: “We hope our results will reassure parents and others who have been concerned about the possibility that MMR vaccine is likely to cause autism and that they will help restore confidence in MMR vaccine.”
Nope. They sure don’t.
If you want to reassure us, you should collect the data from parent interviews, not from medical records.
ANYONE can replicate my survey in seconds of effort.
Perhaps someone can explain why my results are so lopsided if there is no connection?
I was at the Autism One conference in 2014 when nearly every hand went up. Pediatricians purposely drag their feet on referrals for diagnoses. They want to get as many jabs in as possible. My son saw his first developmental pediatrician at 14 months - only because he has a twin and I could see the differences emerging. That developmental pediatrician noted that my son oriented to name, followed a point with nice joint attention and initiated eye contact. Likely just a speech delay. Come back in 6 months. In those 6 months, the pediatrician pressured me to continue vaccinating — said he had a neighbor’s cousin’s roommate’s baby who died from chicken pox when I said a varicella vaccine seemed ridiculous. He said he’d kick me out of the practice for not complying. I didn’t comply. But six months later, my son was diagnosed with autism by that same developmental pediatrician. He handed me a poorly photocopied brochure on ABA and left the room. Absolutely no professional curiosity about what transpired over those 6 months. Should we do an EEG, MRI, test for lysosomal storage disorders? Shrugged his shoulders. Didn’t know. Didn’t care. I only stopped vaccinating because I used to work on Wall St and I learned when something unexpected and inexplicable is happening, reasonable minds pull the trading circuit breaker and stop everything until the market cools down. Pediatricians don’t stop everything, they don’t pull a circuit breaker, even when parents have valid concerns that their toddler’s development is taking an unexpected and inexplicable turn. Of note: my twin with autism got HepB vaccine in the nursery without my consent. The twin without autism was in the NICU and did not.
This question has been asked at autism conferences for close to 30 years. Before AutismOne there were the DAN! conferences (Defeat Autism Now!), organized by Bernie Rimland. Bernie was widely praised for getting the "refrigerator mother" theory rejected by just about everyone. He was widely (and justifiably) celebrated as a hero. He was a parent himself and very close to both the science and reality. But when he took the position that "the autism epidemic is real and overvaccination is its cause" he was ostracized.