It's ridiculously easy to calculate a lower bound estimate on the number of Americans killed by the COVID vaccine: 500K

All you need is one honest paramedic, the number of paramedics, and knowledge of the Poisson distribution. This isn't rocket science. So why isn't anyone else making these estimates?

Executive summary

One honest paramedic + simple math + number of paramedics —> lower bound on deaths caused by the COVID vaccine in America.

A few honest doctors observing a death rate in their own practice —> lower bound on deaths.

I get at least 500K Americans killed by the COVID vaccines, no matter which way I do it. My results agree with many others who have used other estimation methods.

One honest paramedic: Harry Fisher

He texted me that has seen 20 deaths he is certain were caused by the COVID vaccine, and over 100 serious vaccine injuries.

Let’s just use the death count.

A Google search shows over 172,000 paramedics in the US.

For the purposes of a lower bound estimate, we have to assume that Harry is a statistical outlier, i.e., that he is the ONLY paramedic in the US who has seen numbers this high.

The Poisson distribution results for “seen 20 or more events, when we expected 6 events” is 5e-6.

So this means that on average, we’d estimate that the average paramedic sees 6 vaccine deaths.

So a minimum of 6 vax deaths * 172,000 paramedics works out to be slightly over 1M Americans that have been killed by the COVID vaccines.

You can do the similar estimates for doctor observations and there the math is even simpler because you know the denominator

I reached out to 5 doctors who reported seeing an average of 5 deaths per thousand vaccinated.

Let’s assume that I was very unlucky and all these doctors were 2 standard deviations from the mean. The average practice size was over 1,000 patients.

So that suggests a mean of 2 vaccine deaths in a 1,000 patient practice (which has a std deviation per Poisson of 1.4 so 2+2*1.4=4.8 which is close to our value of 5).

Since there were over 270M people who were vaccinated in America, the conservative estimate using this method is 540,000 Americans have been killed.

Here we don’t even need to know the total number of doctors at all or the patient overlap so there is less confusion. We only need to know that doctors don’t count people twice in their practice, which they don’t.

Summary

If I’m wrong, why aren’t we seeing the correct estimates from any mainstream epidemiologists anywhere in the world?

Any decent scientist would want to do estimates using various statistics to make sure they got the right answer. But nowadays, nobody is showing us their work.

I’ve been doing this for over 3 years now and all the estimates I get (from various methods) are all in the same ballpark, including this one. And my numbers agree with others who have been doing the same thing using a variety of methods (VAERS, large family member surveys, etc).

I’d like to see the work of the experts showing all of us got it wrong, but for some reason, they aren’t publishing their work. I guess they don’t want to embarrass us so they are keeping the true numbers a secret.

So I guess we’ll have to wait. But in the meantime, I wanted to make sure all these epidemiologists know that I’d love to be proven wrong and you won’t hurt my feelings if you show us all the correct estimates.