It's ridiculously easy to calculate a lower bound estimate on the number of Americans killed by the COVID vaccine: 500K
All you need is one honest paramedic, the number of paramedics, and knowledge of the Poisson distribution. This isn't rocket science. So why isn't anyone else making these estimates?
Executive summary
One honest paramedic + simple math + number of paramedics —> lower bound on deaths caused by the COVID vaccine in America.
A few honest doctors observing a death rate in their own practice —> lower bound on deaths.
I get at least 500K Americans killed by the COVID vaccines, no matter which way I do it. My results agree with many others who have used other estimation methods.
One honest paramedic: Harry Fisher
He texted me that has seen 20 deaths he is certain were caused by the COVID vaccine, and over 100 serious vaccine injuries.
Let’s just use the death count.
A Google search shows over 172,000 paramedics in the US.
For the purposes of a lower bound estimate, we have to assume that Harry is a statistical outlier, i.e., that he is the ONLY paramedic in the US who has seen numbers this high.
The Poisson distribution results for “seen 20 or more events, when we expected 6 events” is 5e-6.
So this means that on average, we’d estimate that the average paramedic sees 6 vaccine deaths.
So a minimum of 6 vax deaths * 172,000 paramedics works out to be slightly over 1M Americans that have been killed by the COVID vaccines.
You can do the similar estimates for doctor observations and there the math is even simpler because you know the denominator
I reached out to 5 doctors who reported seeing an average of 5 deaths per thousand vaccinated.
Let’s assume that I was very unlucky and all these doctors were 2 standard deviations from the mean. The average practice size was over 1,000 patients.
So that suggests a mean of 2 vaccine deaths in a 1,000 patient practice (which has a std deviation per Poisson of 1.4 so 2+2*1.4=4.8 which is close to our value of 5).
Since there were over 270M people who were vaccinated in America, the conservative estimate using this method is 540,000 Americans have been killed.
Here we don’t even need to know the total number of doctors at all or the patient overlap so there is less confusion. We only need to know that doctors don’t count people twice in their practice, which they don’t.
Summary
If I’m wrong, why aren’t we seeing the correct estimates from any mainstream epidemiologists anywhere in the world?
Any decent scientist would want to do estimates using various statistics to make sure they got the right answer. But nowadays, nobody is showing us their work.
I’ve been doing this for over 3 years now and all the estimates I get (from various methods) are all in the same ballpark, including this one. And my numbers agree with others who have been doing the same thing using a variety of methods (VAERS, large family member surveys, etc).
I’d like to see the work of the experts showing all of us got it wrong, but for some reason, they aren’t publishing their work. I guess they don’t want to embarrass us so they are keeping the true numbers a secret.
So I guess we’ll have to wait. But in the meantime, I wanted to make sure all these epidemiologists know that I’d love to be proven wrong and you won’t hurt my feelings if you show us all the correct estimates.
FYI: Harry Fisher's new book "Safe And Effective, For Profit: A Paramedic’s Story Exposing American Genocide" is included in Vaccine Safety Research Foundation's new Fundraising Raffle:
Misinformation Superspreader Library of Books. https://givebutter.com/superspreaderlibrary
Some of the sudden unexpected deaths of young people in Kingston, Ontario, Canada, since thee quackcine mandate/rollout. Population of Kingston - approx 130K.
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/blake-cumpson-1089252256
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/tanya-dillon-1089295998
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/robert-dennie-1089239079
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/william-dixon-1089265095
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/bernard-fargo-1089296014
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/robert-fleming-1089295993
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/nathan-freeburn-1089221406
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/brooke-hegadorn-1089270310
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/richard-jr-hepburn-1089246682
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/gerald-mills-1089225225
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/troy-o-farrell-1089249359
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/david-peach-1089285295
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-roettger-1089320113
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/gregory-snide
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-robinson-1089150001
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/adam-steeves-1089150006
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/lee-anne-johnstone-1089141708
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/betty-riley-1089119868
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/tyler-macdonald-1089116414
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/barry-aylesworth-1089090459
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/nicholas-de-haan-1089083268
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/danielle-sheppard-amey-1089077239
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/phillis-garofalo-kelly-1089112618
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/william-simmers-1089042364
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/janet-turney-1089041157
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/kevin-denton-1089000198
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/matthew-roy-1088966265
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/john-kimberley-1088957515
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/joanne-huisman-1088957502
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/julie-robertson-1088957500
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/mark-trowbridge-1088930945
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/david-brooks-1088906763
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/tony-doolittle-1088887660
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-berman-1088847387
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/lucas-herrington-1088847398
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/marla-pedersen-1088845039
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/kathleen-hogarth-1088839101
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/steven-conway-1088839105
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/parker-scott-1088814952
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/maguire-kent-1088806766
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/lisa-murphy-1088678443
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/rui-medeiros-1088646909
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/timothy-cassidy-1088630832
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/jason-serson-1088612717
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-mcpherson-1088603511
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/stacy-bell-1088587044
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/rhonda-monette-1088551288
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/samantha-holmes-1088526107
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/sharry-smith-1088526029
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/sarah-roberts-cowan-1088524152
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/tessa-snider-1088469322
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/d-arcy-mercer-1088469295
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/richard-gurnsey-1088469200
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/carrie-standing-1088433277
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/timothy-mcarthur-1088346465
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/andrew-washburn-1088346449
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/sutton-grainger-1087995693
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/darcey-pantrey-1087624634
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/stephanie-gregory-1087494709
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/andrew-oberst-1087417122
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/jennifer-mather-1087410269
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/donald-cowell-1087369779
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/henry-payne-1087369775
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/david-campbell-1087346146
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/carol-kennedy-1087295160
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/dixie-leigh-white-1087263823
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/kevin-vance-1087263818
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/bradly-quintal-1087232617
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/liam-hustler-1087231041
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/andrew-notley-sawyer-1087195422
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/tanis-purvis-1087142199
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/odette-macdon
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/james-robert-doug-clarke-1089714762
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/roberto-carfa-1089715732
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/robert-thomas-dillon-1089855775
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-shook-1089849888
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-leslie-mcnally-1089841055
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/linda-paquin-1089841345
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-keenleyside-1089770823
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/david-william-johnson-1089867549
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/chris-aka-pazz-przontka-1089693146
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michael-shaw-1089674962
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/christopher-kilpatrick-1089674997
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/jane-perry-1089656471
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/brian-ashurst-1089623444
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/miranda-doner-1089543183
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/derek-brown-1089558694
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/jason-manuge-1089558682
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/crystale-rheaume-1089539505
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/jeremy-igglesden-1089508377
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/jeremy-tooley-1089496939
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/dale-sands-1089475197
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/denise-hughes-1089455389
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/sherry-porteous-1089455375
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michelle-methot-1089449482
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/lisa-bolton-1089423141
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/kenneth-lockhart-1089415047
https://www.kingstonist.com/obituaries/in-loving-memory-of-william-stevens/
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/carissa-teal-1090031851
https://www.arbormemorial.ca/en/gftompkins-township/obituaries/kelly-colby/109949.html
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/victoria-dowling-victoria-1090111391
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/pamela-janet-md-frcpc-frid-1090101569
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/lisa-harman-1090101295
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/jason-kerr-1089993731
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/christine-mackenzie-ludorf-1089954012
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/nicole-nikki-christine-poirier-1090108314
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/allan-pearson-1090105503
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/susan-prudil-1090086859
https://thewhig.remembering.ca/obituary/michelle-nee-hare-schnarr-1090092091
https://www.wartmanfuneralhomes.com/memorials/faith-pottle/5470034/index.php
https://www.jamesreidfuneralhome.com/obituaries/Ivan-Jakov?obId=32645971
https://paynefuneralhome.com/tribute/details/1076/Paula-Peruelo/obituary.html#tribute-start
https://www.queensu.ca/gazette/stories/queen-s-community-remembers-student-rachael-anne-smith
https://www.queensu.ca/gazette/stories/queen-s-remembers-mariana-pradier-silva
https://www.queensu.ca/gazette/stories/queen-s-remembers-sameh-sorour
https://www.queensu.ca/gazette/stories/queen-s-remembers-student-jack-quipp
https://www.arbormemorial.ca/en/gftompkins-township/obituaries/arthur-john-cockfield/77411.html
https://www.queensu.ca/gazette/stories/queen-s-community-remembers-calvin-huang-fu
https://www.queensu.ca/gazette/stories/queen-s-remembers-professor-jon-pharoah
https://globalnews.ca/news/6480231/queens-university-cheerleader-dies/
https://www.thewhig.com/news/queens-university-mourns-death-of-first-year-student-jacob-downey
https://www.queensu.ca/gazette/stories/queen-s-remembers-phd-student-liam-horton
Their blood cries out from the ground. God help us,