Israel vs. Palestine COVID mortality was the same despite vastly different COVID protocols. It's "as if" the vaccine didn't work!?!
If you live in Israel or Palestine or know someone who does, I need your help to understand what is going on with respect to COVID deaths in the two countries.
Executive summary
This is one of the most stunning “natural experiments” regarding the efficacy of the COVID vaccine in preventing deaths.
Both Israel and Palestine tracked COVID mortality before and after the vaccine rollout (which was nearly all to Israel).
Yet if you look at the cumulative COVID deaths, it “looks” like there was no intervention at all because there was no slope discontinuity that you would expect to see on each COVID wave with a vaccine that is supposedly highly protective against death.
Palestine has a younger population, but the cumulative mortality slopes during the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine COVID waves tracked each other.
I think it means the vaccine didn’t work and this is a smoking gun.
ChatGPT insists that there must be a confounder and suggests that it was because Palestine had high COVID cases before the rollout and acquired natural immunity.
I checked this out and it appears to be false, but it could be due to under-reporting of cases in Palestine relative to Israel.
I need your insights
Can you help me shed some light on what is going on?
Specifically:
Did Palestine have more COVID cases than Israel and it was just under-reported?
Did Palestine have fewer COVID deaths per capita than Israel or was it due to reporting differences?
Anything you observed that might shed some light on these results?
The slopes pre- and post-COVID were identical which strongly suggests that the vaccine did nothing mortality wise. It’s hard to believe that a confounder was magically able to exactly match the slopes on each variant after the vaccine rolled out especially since Delta and Omicron had different case fatality rates.
There is data from the UK showing that the vaccines increased cases in the vaccinated by 2x to 3x which appears to be accompanied by a 1/3 lower fatality rate if you were vaccinated so the vaccine was a net zero benefit in terms of fatalities and explains why so many studies found a death benefit when there wasn’t one. Also, the unvaccinated group when a population is highly vaccinated can have an absurdly high non-COVID all-cause mortality (like 3x higher) so that’s a factor as well.
Summary
This is one of the most stunning graphs of the pandemic.
It’s either a huge smoking gun or a red herring.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Mr. Kirsch:
The link I'm sharing is to an article from August 24 2021 which studied the post infection and post vaccination infection rates in Israel. It noted those "vaccinated" were 13 times more likely to get reinfected ("breakthrough infections" ) than those who had been infected without having been vaccinated (reinfections). There was 27.02 fold increase in symptomatic breakthrough infections in comparison to symptomatic reinfections. With regard to hospital admissions post infection or post vaccination, the vaccinated had 7 x the rate of hospital admission in comparison to the previously infected. You can pasted the following link into your browser to get to the article. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415
These results alone could explain most of your second graph. However, Israel and Palestine have very different medical systems and poverty rates such that it is likely that some of the explanation may need to include underreporting in Palestine. Higher income and easier access to health care in Israel should explain some of the graph as that is certainly a confounding variable.
Another curiosity: it has been reported that every heavily "vaccinated" country has seen a significant increase in cancer, especially what is being referred to a "turbo" cancer. Since Israel is one of the most heavily "vaccinated" countries, are they also seeing this rise in cancer? I'd be interested in finding out about this.