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Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022Pinned

https://peakprosperity.com/community/general-discussion-and-questions/administered-doses-cause-excess-mortality-with-a-5-months-delay-repost/#post-188295

A simple observational causal analysis of August 9 came to the same conclusion. This was based on European data.

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Edit, as one has to be a member to read the content of he linke above, I took the liberty to post the text here.

"This is my promised reaction to Holden. Let’s start with the conclusion based on the EU data from the data sets that Holden used (see picture).

<1436-ExcessMortality.png>

What the figure shows is the “correlation coefficient” as function of a temporal delay, that is, time shift. A negative time shift indicates that excess mortality is preceding the vaccination status.

A positive time shift indicates that the administered doses precedes the excess mortality.

The optimal time shift is defined as that time shift that maximizes the absolute pearson coefficient. We search for the highest, or the lowest value. The lowest value is around -0.3, while the highest value is around 0.8. Because the absolute value of the highest,+0.8, is larger than the absolute value of the lowest, +0.3, the optimal time shift is + 5 months. That is, Administered Doses precedes Excess mortality.

As Holden indeed mentioned, we do find a negative relation also when there is no shift. However, the explanatory power of +0.8 is way larger than -0.3. The reason why I used “causes” instead of causes is that there are several characteristics of causal relations. What we tested now is “temporal precedence”.

Continued in Reply,,,

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You can also see these effects in CDC's provisional death data - filed under "unknown causes"...here's the first quickie analysis I did back in January - https://wholistic.substack.com/p/cdc-data-supports-mysterious-40-increase

And here's an update I did on August 25, and the data is even worse, but the media is blaming the deaths on everything but the vaccines: https://wholistic.substack.com/p/excess-deaths-lets-blame-everything

Dr. John Campbell, who used to be skeptical of the "anti-vaxxers" got this video banned from his YouTube channel because he went over the UK Yellow Card death reports:

https://wholistic.substack.com/p/the-censored-john-campbell-video

But followed up with this one showing all the excess data without mentioning the vaccines per se:

https://wholistic.substack.com/p/dr-john-campbells-second-video-on

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founding

Have you considered trying to get the attention of key actuaries with this analysis? I know you said you were more on the tech end but it might be possible to challenge the official narrative fairly effectively if you can get the attention of certain individuals, some of whom would have access to their own corporate data which they could potentially analyze. For instance, there's an upcoming webinar sponsored by the CCA in Nov (https://www.ccactuaries.org/event-detail/2022/11/09/default-calendar/measuring-covid-severity-what-are-the-odds-and-ends-) -- maybe you (or you and Steve) could reach out to these speakers?

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Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022

Actually, no. The reason is twofold. The method that I developed (not the one used in this post, this is a simple approach that is only applicable in a limited set of cases) is new, and still some research questions need to be answered. As TPTB have a rather ugly track record in silencing even well known, and well connected people, I do not want to run the risk that this new approach will be "killed". However, together with some others I'm investigating the possibility of implementing causal analytics on a server, and make it freely available (for a limited data set, i.e., thousands of samples, and maximal twenty parameters). In this way we will be somewhat "hardened" against the nefarious actors who killed science.

The second reason is also very close to my heart. Years ago I came up with a novel way to generate hydrogen using only warmth. This takes basically most of my time. I'm not even sure if it works, but I will never forgive myself if I won't try to find out.

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Thank you, Dave. 💡👀

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PeakProsperity link is blocked for people without an account. I have 600+ accounts and would rather not get another. :)

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Chris Martenson maintains an open YouTube channel, PeakProsperity.

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Apart from the YT channel, there is a very active community on the P..p...com.

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I am a member.

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I am a member too but you still have to pay to read this article

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Don't. The text is rather self-explanatory (I hope). The graph shows an "S" shaped curve. The top of the "S" occurs @ 5 months, meaning that the variation in the # of vaccines administered 5 months ago, are the best "eplanation" for he variations of excess mortality now.

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author

Who authored the post on the site? This is awesome. We get the same result using a completely different data set

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You should interview Dr. Chris Martenson, one of the earlier callers of BS on the C19 events. He runs a YouTube channel called Peak Prosperity. He recently did a wonderful mutual interview with Dr. Bret Weinstein.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOT6nzzKrO8

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Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022

I did. Causal analytics is kind of a hobby of mine, which started while working in a High Tech company. I have a couple of papers published. And I'm thinking about a startup using a specific propriatory method used on Information Theory. Still a couple of theoretical problems have to be resolved, but the results thusfar are pretty amazing. For more information, please pop me an email. I'm very hesitant to use my own name, as TPTB have a proven track record of destroying everything of value.

Edit: ahh, I noticed that no private messages can be send. Well, hopefully in a couple of months our free causal analytics service will be available. Your data driven substack will give ample opportunity to post some of it's results.

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author

Nice work. You referred To a figure from I think it was Holden. Did he find the same 5 month delay?

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Jan 13, 2023·edited Jan 13, 2023

I remember this post and wonder if it is quasi-prophetic. We are now essentially hitting the 5 month mark on the bivalent jabs from sept and oct 2022. Seems like it is kicking in now.

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Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022

Holden did a correlation check. He found a negative correlation. However, his methodology was incomplete. I used this approach to show him that one has to apply time shifts. The figure I refer to is the correlation coefficient versus the time delay based on my approach.

For a time delay of zero, the negative correlation was found that Holden referred to. However, the correlation coefficient was maximized for a 5 months delay.

This was merely an exercise to show Holden how to perform this type of analysis and not to jump to hasty conclusions.

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All are using the time of the 2nd dose right? So there would be a negative time shift if a person dies after 1st dose, but before 2nd?

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I used the second dose. For all doses, a positive correlation coefficient is found for certain time shifts. However, because monthly data was used, the significance of the correlation coefficient for the boosters was not sufficiently high enough. As indicated, I would have preferred weekly data, plus a different method. Unfortunately I do not have a lot of time.

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Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022

Continued...

In the cause of observational causality, another important aspect is that the cause should predict the effect better than the effect predicts itself. In this case we indeed find that Excess Mortality predicts itself poorly —of course, for a time delay equal to 0, it does predict itself, for all other time delays, it has little to no explanatory power.

From this we can conclude that, based on the data sets used, Administered Doses do cause Excess Mortality. Of course, our “briliant experts” are still stuck in the 19th century wrt statistical methods. I do not expect that they will be able to explain the excess mortality with their current methods, simply because 5 months is a hugh time delay, and because here is typically little knowledge of observational causal methods.

About the method

The method used is based on correlations. The current state-of-the-art is based on Information Theory, but that’s too out of the ordinary for layman, and even experts, so we better not go there. When I have time in a couple of weeks I might run the information theoretical causal analytics.

About the data

As mentioned, the data sets from Holden’s sources were used. We selected only EU countries, we did not differentiate between sexes and age groups. Finally we used monthly data due to time restrictions on my side (I simply do not have time to search for, or create weekly data sets for the excess mortality)."

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I came to a similar conclusion of a delay using data in VAERS - https://howbad.info/secondpeak.html

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Thank you!

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This is great analysis...thank you.

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Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 2, 2022

I read your post. If I'm not mistaken, your "optimal" delay is 180 days? If so, again very close to 5 months.

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Thank you Craig Paardekooper for all your amazing work.

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Some amazing minds on here seeking the truth

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deletedSep 2, 2022·edited Sep 2, 2022
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That there is so much for us left to learn is a beautiful thing indeed.

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JP, I think you're referring to the butterfly effect, but that effect is nonsense. A snowball can keep expanding going down a steep wet snowy slope, but once the slope ends, it stops expanding and stops moving. The air movements from butterfly wing motion diminish over time. There's nothing to make them expand. Air molecules don't attach to the small air mass around a butterfly.

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deletedSep 2, 2022·edited Sep 2, 2022
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Conventional science is plagued with bad assumptions. Quantum physics is in the same boat. See some of the papers in the Quantum Physics section of this site: http://milesmathis.com/

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you must be a member to view your link

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Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022

I can mail you the full post. I took the liberty to post the text here. Please indicate if this pollutes the comment setcion in your opinion. if so, I'll delete it.

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author

Don’t delete. Great stuff

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founding

I am currently kicking myself because I saw Dave's post three weeks ago, and when Steve posted this new substack article, I didn't connect the two. Two different approaches coming up with the same answer...amazing. I don't pretend to understand the stats - I can barely do correlations when python does all the hard work.

Dave also theorized that there could be two peaks; one smaller one immediately following vaccination (visible in VAERS), and another much more impactful one 5 months in (visible in the larger data sets). Maybe - two methods of action at work?

If true, the "second peak" might mean that Steve has ... grossly undercounted the deaths by relying on VAERS numbers, which only looks at that first peak.

I'm not quite sure what to think about that.

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What to think?

Welcome to the shitshow.

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Horrorific to say the least.

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Thanks for getting back to me Steve, do you have any information on articles related to this issue?

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We have this 6 months spike also in this web archive...

https://web.archive.org/web/20220114005412/https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#vaccine-outcomes

Could it be that the negativeness of VE also play a role in covid death, paradoxically in low Vx states (only 2 doses): https://academic.oup.com/ije/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyac199/6770060?login=false

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Oct 27, 2022·edited Oct 27, 2022

Steve

I sent you a hypothesis a while back that showed each wave of vaccinations reset the infection clock, so after each vaccination round started ( i.e. shot 1,2, booster 1, 2), infections would go up and you would see the next "wave " of COVID infections like clockwork happen 4 months later.

If you look at ourworldindata.org data for Australia or Israel, you can see this pretty clearly.

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Father-in-law took the booster Nov 2021, passed away Feb 2021...

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In March 2021 I had my second Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine. In late July 2021, I ended up in the emergency room with pre-mature ventricular contractions (PVC’s). In August 2021, I experienced a deep vein thrombosis (DVT)(blood clot) in my right calf. After reading this article, I believe there’s a good chance they were both caused by the Pfizer vaccine injections.

Rick

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Still, has anyone touched the ethnic weapon component of the data?

It is primarily engineered to maim and kill people of European descent.

ACE-2 and TMPRSS2

The most susceptible populations to the least in order:

54% - Non-Finnish European (EUR)

39% - African/African-American (AFR)

2-10% - Latin/Admixed American (AMR), East Asian (EAS), Finnish (FIN), & South Asian (SAS)

0% - Amish (AMI) & Ashkenazi Jewish (ASJ)

I have even more data on this that point to who likely engineered the spike protein and gave to China to manufacture.

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It seems to be killing off the PC lefty crowd who stampeded to take the shots. I'd call that a backfire.

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the communists want to kill Western populations (Whites) in preparation for colonization by China and other miscellaneous south american communist countries.

it doesn't matter that the left went all-in. the end result is destruction of us all.

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For Steve and colleagues assisting you: Perhaps already being done, perhaps not worth doing, a thought "dropped in", use it if useful: One would think that obituaries could be tracked in some manner (either many people assist, or perhaps it can now be done with some sort of algorithms) as a way of mapping obituaries by gender, age group, and numbers, in every town, village, and city, probably in the world? I do not know how to do this...but there might be some people who do.

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Could this just be Delta? YES!

I fear this terrible analysis will end up being extremely damaging to your credibility, Steve. If your hypothesis were correct, there would be a massive peak in excess deaths in high % vax states like Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, etc. But there isn't even a little surge of deaths in those states that summer/fall. The massive surge in excess deaths occurs in the states you would least expect to see them if trying to correlate with vax, states like AL, MS, AR, FL. Delta was a *regional* covid surge due to lack of sun/Vit D because it's 95 degrees down here by June/July. Just look at the state charts!

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

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Sep 8, 2022·edited Sep 8, 2022

Steve's hypothetical "5 month peak" in excess deaths is almost EXACTLY consistent with the Pfizer and Moderna "gold standard" randomized clinical trial results. In the first month or so of follow-up, both the Pfizer and Moderna trials had less deaths in the vaccine groups than the placebo groups, and this is perfectly consistent with Steve's data not showing any excess deaths soon after the shots. (The Pfizer trial did have ONE death 3 days post first dose which the vaccine almost certainly caused or contributed to, but this was very rare and likely to be outweighed by even a miniscule "benefit" of the shots during the Alpha variant when they "sorta" worked). But then between ~1 month post-vaccination and the unblinding of the clinical trials around 6 months post-vaccination, BOTH trials' vaccine groups had incurred excess deaths compared to their placebo groups, such that the vaccine groups now had equal or slightly greater death totals than the placebo groups, hence the famous line "the vaccines kill more than they save". IIRC, even after both trials were unblinded, the trend continued with more deaths occurring in the original vaccine groups (vaccinated ~6 months earlier), in comparison to the original placebo groups (newly vaccinated) which had less deaths.

Sure, a significant fraction of excess deaths during the period Steve is talking about were due to Delta. Subtracting the Delta deaths (which needs to be done) will greatly reduce the magnitude, but it DOES NOT refute Steve's hypothesis. Especially since the "gold standard" randomized clinical trial results from BOTH Pfizer and Moderna independently match Steve's hypothesis almost exactly. You would need a lot of "coincidences" to refute Steve's hypothesis.

If you don't believe me about the clinical trial deaths, or if my writing isn't eloquent enough, Alex Berenson summarized this nicely in a Substack post long time ago (in essence, he's saying the excess deaths happened around the 2-6 month window, NOT before 2 months):

"In their initial safety report to the FDA, which contained data through November 2020, the researchers had said four placebo recipients and two vaccine recipients died, one after the first dose and one after the second. The July update reversed that trend. Between November 2020 and March 2021, 13 vaccine recipients died, compared to only 10 placebo subjects."

https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/more-people-died-in-the-key-clinical

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Actually, you just need 1 example to refute a theory, but we have several. There is almost no surge in excess mortality in high % vax states like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, etc. If you remove the deaths *attributed* to Delta/covid, the SSA chart would essentially look flat. If a hypothesis was correct, it would be true all over the US.

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Sep 8, 2022·edited Sep 8, 2022

"you just need 1 example to refute a theory" is definitely not true- even your favorite theory will have many exceptions, you know that. But much more importantly, "CDC data" is neither trustworthy nor scientifically sound. Randomized, double-blind clinical trials (a.k.a. "the gold standard in medical research") are infinitely superior, though obviously not perfect.

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Is this what it's like to be retarded

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5 months must be a bell curve

How many months is 3 sigma?

And

It could be a one side distribution

That is the JABBED can still SUDDENLY die 5 years from now

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I get how heart attacks, strokes, etc could be vaccine related but does anyone know how suicides could be vaccine related as mentioned in the article? Just trying to understand better.

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Below is what I replied to Matt T and Jordan:

“We know from historical data that the biggest foe for SARS patients who survived the initial infection in 2003-2004 is neurotoxicity. Since 2020, we have seen, in long COVIDs as well as injuries from the “Covid vaccines”, serious neurological involvements. Just as loss of smell is a clinical sign of damage to the first cranial nerve, suicide could be a clinical sign of disturbances to multiple brain centers and the overall connectivity of the central nervous system. Sadly, suicide is final; so let’s care about and be tolerant of one another, and whenever possible, gently spread the word so anyone who feels down also knows 1) to give himself/herself as well as people like Steve, Dr. Ryan Cole, Dr. Bryan Ardis… time to figure out the best treatment protocol, and 2) to never give in any form or shape of some Final Solution.”

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Typo: Third paragraph of executive summary "Using data from the UK, we can see more clearly that the delay time is around 23 weeks (so a bit more than 5 weeks)." I believe the last word should be "months" not "weeks." Thanks for the great work you do!

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NACI now suggests Canadians consider a COVID-19 booster every 90 days. ... I shudder to think what the ripple effects will be with adverse events. If -- using Occam’s razor -- the vaccine takes an average of 5 months to kill people after the second dose .... how many months once every 90 days is the routine.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/medical/naci-now-suggests-canadians-consider-a-covid-19-booster-every-90-days/ar-AA11pkdW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=07f9f534588940f0adf26962bedd637b&fbclid=IwAR3TzUqF5ZDL5kPgQJ_MKpjTpYVn3Jzg8mYke09AlMR78C6odjdoS8GV0xc

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I said this one year ago in August of 2021. The first patient upon whom I saw this was very belligerent about how stupid the people were in medicine who were not getting the shots, he had bilateral DVT’s! Then the pattern unfolded. I said shots in March clots in August, shots in April clots in Sept …

CONFIRMED!!!

If you’ve had Covid & especially if you’ve had the vaccines take lumbrokinase!

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Thanks Clint, what you are saying is what I experienced. In March 2021 I had my second Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine. In late July 2021, I ended up in the emergency room with pre-mature ventricular contractions (PVC’s). In August 2021, I experienced a deep vein thrombosis (DVT)(blood clot) in my right calf. After reading this article, I believe there’s a good chance they were both caused by the Pfizer vaccine injections.

Thanks,

Rick

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I found approx 4 months after the start of each round of covid vaccinations in Australia and Israel ( for example ) , you would see the next "wave" come thru society. Perhaps it takes an extra month to go from vaccine induced infection to death/clot perhaps?

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