Your low-COVID period consists of June 14th 2021 to September 26th 2021. But especially during the earlier part of your low-COVID period, the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated mortality was elevated because there were still many people who had recently gotten the first vaccine dose so they were impacted by the temporal healthy va…
Your low-COVID period consists of June 14th 2021 to September 26th 2021. But especially during the earlier part of your low-COVID period, the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated mortality was elevated because there were still many people who had recently gotten the first vaccine dose so they were impacted by the temporal healthy vaccinee effect. And your high-COVID period consists of October 4th 2021 to May 8th 2022, but in April 2022 there were no longer that many COVID deaths.
I tried editing your spreadsheet so that I changed the high-COVID period to the Delta peak on weeks 45 to 52 of 2021, and I changed the low-COVID period to weeks 36 to 42 of 2021 which were before the Delta wave. But now the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated CMR was about 4.29 during the high-COVID period but only about 2.90 during the low-COVID period. So unvaccinated people clearly had a bigger relative increase in mortality during the Delta wave.
From the time series plot I posted here, you can also see that the increase in mortality during the Delta wave was much more pronounced in unvaccinated people than vaccinated people: sars2.net/rootclaim3.html#Mortality_during_COVID_and_non_COVID_periods_in_Czech_data. You should've also included a similar time series plot in this Substack post.
I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before. And also, you didn’t analyze the second part of the Covid wave where you would find the same bad news for the vaccinated. So sure you’re gonna find Whatever you’re looking for if you manipulate the dates. I didn’t manipulate the dates. I simply chose the Covid period When the Covid test started going up and then ended it when the Covid numbers went back to near zero.
if you then add on the second non-Covid. After that you will find That the vaccinated are now dying at a much higher rate than they were before during non-Covid periods.
You wrote: "I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before."
But that's because in mid-2021 there were still many recently vaccinated people who were impacted by the temporal HVE.
My ASMR for people in the Czech dataset was about 969 in May 2020. In comparison the ASMR of vaccinated people was about 606 in May 2021 but about 900 in May 2022, so both were lower than the 2020 baseline, but 2021 was about 37% lower than the baseline because vaccinated people were heavily impacted by the temporal HVE in May 2021:
year vax asmr # ASMR per 100,000 person-years in May of each year
2020 FALSE 969
2021 TRUE 606
2021 FALSE 2081
2022 TRUE 900
2022 FALSE 1584
If you would've used the second half of 2022 as your low-COVID period then it wouldn't have been confounded as much by the temporal HVE. My code above shows the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR was about 3.4 in 2021 but only about 1.8 in 2022.
I counted people as vaccinated from the day of the first dose. But there's a low number of deaths in the first few weeks after vaccination, so if I would've counted people as unvaccinated until 3 weeks from the first dose, it would've worked in the favor of unvaccinated people because it would've reduced the mortality of unvaccinated people and increased the mortality of vaccinated people: https://sars2.net/czech4.html#ASMR_when_people_are_classified_as_unvaccinated_until_three_weeks_from_vaccination.
You will have immortal time bias favoring the vaccinated when your definition of "vaccinated" depends on having survived the 3-4 weeks between the first and second doses. So counting people as vaccinated starting at the first dose is correct.
Your low-COVID period consists of June 14th 2021 to September 26th 2021. But especially during the earlier part of your low-COVID period, the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated mortality was elevated because there were still many people who had recently gotten the first vaccine dose so they were impacted by the temporal healthy vaccinee effect. And your high-COVID period consists of October 4th 2021 to May 8th 2022, but in April 2022 there were no longer that many COVID deaths.
I tried editing your spreadsheet so that I changed the high-COVID period to the Delta peak on weeks 45 to 52 of 2021, and I changed the low-COVID period to weeks 36 to 42 of 2021 which were before the Delta wave. But now the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated CMR was about 4.29 during the high-COVID period but only about 2.90 during the low-COVID period. So unvaccinated people clearly had a bigger relative increase in mortality during the Delta wave.
From the time series plot I posted here, you can also see that the increase in mortality during the Delta wave was much more pronounced in unvaccinated people than vaccinated people: sars2.net/rootclaim3.html#Mortality_during_COVID_and_non_COVID_periods_in_Czech_data. You should've also included a similar time series plot in this Substack post.
I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before. And also, you didn’t analyze the second part of the Covid wave where you would find the same bad news for the vaccinated. So sure you’re gonna find Whatever you’re looking for if you manipulate the dates. I didn’t manipulate the dates. I simply chose the Covid period When the Covid test started going up and then ended it when the Covid numbers went back to near zero.
if you then add on the second non-Covid. After that you will find That the vaccinated are now dying at a much higher rate than they were before during non-Covid periods.
You wrote: "I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before."
But that's because in mid-2021 there were still many recently vaccinated people who were impacted by the temporal HVE.
My ASMR for people in the Czech dataset was about 969 in May 2020. In comparison the ASMR of vaccinated people was about 606 in May 2021 but about 900 in May 2022, so both were lower than the 2020 baseline, but 2021 was about 37% lower than the baseline because vaccinated people were heavily impacted by the temporal HVE in May 2021:
> cul=\(x,y)y[cut(x,c(y,Inf),,T,F)]
> ages=c(0,3:9*5,50:89,18:20*5)
> t=fread("https://sars2.net/f/czbucketsdaily.csv.gz")
> a=t[month(date)==5,.(pop=sum(alive),dead=sum(dead)),.(vax=dose>0,year=year(date),age=cul(age,ages))]
> a=merge(a,fread("https://sars2.net/f/czcensus2021pop.csv")[,sum(pop),.(age=cul(age,ages))][,.(age,std=V1/sum(V1))])
> a[,.(asmr=round(sum(dead/pop*std*365e5))),.(year,vax)]|>print(r=F)
year vax asmr # ASMR per 100,000 person-years in May of each year
2020 FALSE 969
2021 TRUE 606
2021 FALSE 2081
2022 TRUE 900
2022 FALSE 1584
If you would've used the second half of 2022 as your low-COVID period then it wouldn't have been confounded as much by the temporal HVE. My code above shows the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR was about 3.4 in 2021 but only about 1.8 in 2022.
How are the vaccinated determined? Is there a time window when deaths are deemed to be "unvaccinated", thus skewing the results?
I counted people as vaccinated from the day of the first dose. But there's a low number of deaths in the first few weeks after vaccination, so if I would've counted people as unvaccinated until 3 weeks from the first dose, it would've worked in the favor of unvaccinated people because it would've reduced the mortality of unvaccinated people and increased the mortality of vaccinated people: https://sars2.net/czech4.html#ASMR_when_people_are_classified_as_unvaccinated_until_three_weeks_from_vaccination.
You will have immortal time bias favoring the vaccinated when your definition of "vaccinated" depends on having survived the 3-4 weeks between the first and second doses. So counting people as vaccinated starting at the first dose is correct.