I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before. And also, you didn’t analyze the second part of the Covid wave where you would find the same bad news for the vaccinated. So sure you’re gonna find…
I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before. And also, you didn’t analyze the second part of the Covid wave where you would find the same bad news for the vaccinated. So sure you’re gonna find Whatever you’re looking for if you manipulate the dates. I didn’t manipulate the dates. I simply chose the Covid period When the Covid test started going up and then ended it when the Covid numbers went back to near zero.
if you then add on the second non-Covid. After that you will find That the vaccinated are now dying at a much higher rate than they were before during non-Covid periods.
You wrote: "I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before."
But that's because in mid-2021 there were still many recently vaccinated people who were impacted by the temporal HVE.
My ASMR for people in the Czech dataset was about 969 in May 2020. In comparison the ASMR of vaccinated people was about 606 in May 2021 but about 900 in May 2022, so both were lower than the 2020 baseline, but 2021 was about 37% lower than the baseline because vaccinated people were heavily impacted by the temporal HVE in May 2021:
year vax asmr # ASMR per 100,000 person-years in May of each year
2020 FALSE 969
2021 TRUE 606
2021 FALSE 2081
2022 TRUE 900
2022 FALSE 1584
If you would've used the second half of 2022 as your low-COVID period then it wouldn't have been confounded as much by the temporal HVE. My code above shows the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR was about 3.4 in 2021 but only about 1.8 in 2022.
I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before. And also, you didn’t analyze the second part of the Covid wave where you would find the same bad news for the vaccinated. So sure you’re gonna find Whatever you’re looking for if you manipulate the dates. I didn’t manipulate the dates. I simply chose the Covid period When the Covid test started going up and then ended it when the Covid numbers went back to near zero.
if you then add on the second non-Covid. After that you will find That the vaccinated are now dying at a much higher rate than they were before during non-Covid periods.
You wrote: "I think you forgot to analyze the non-Covid period After the full Covid wave was over. There you will find that the vaccinated are dying at a higher rate than the rate they were dying before."
But that's because in mid-2021 there were still many recently vaccinated people who were impacted by the temporal HVE.
My ASMR for people in the Czech dataset was about 969 in May 2020. In comparison the ASMR of vaccinated people was about 606 in May 2021 but about 900 in May 2022, so both were lower than the 2020 baseline, but 2021 was about 37% lower than the baseline because vaccinated people were heavily impacted by the temporal HVE in May 2021:
> cul=\(x,y)y[cut(x,c(y,Inf),,T,F)]
> ages=c(0,3:9*5,50:89,18:20*5)
> t=fread("https://sars2.net/f/czbucketsdaily.csv.gz")
> a=t[month(date)==5,.(pop=sum(alive),dead=sum(dead)),.(vax=dose>0,year=year(date),age=cul(age,ages))]
> a=merge(a,fread("https://sars2.net/f/czcensus2021pop.csv")[,sum(pop),.(age=cul(age,ages))][,.(age,std=V1/sum(V1))])
> a[,.(asmr=round(sum(dead/pop*std*365e5))),.(year,vax)]|>print(r=F)
year vax asmr # ASMR per 100,000 person-years in May of each year
2020 FALSE 969
2021 TRUE 606
2021 FALSE 2081
2022 TRUE 900
2022 FALSE 1584
If you would've used the second half of 2022 as your low-COVID period then it wouldn't have been confounded as much by the temporal HVE. My code above shows the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR was about 3.4 in 2021 but only about 1.8 in 2022.