VAERS data is crystal clear: The COVID vaccines are killing an estimated 1 person per 1,000 doses (676,000 dead Americans)

It takes about 30 seconds to do a VAERS query that shows the COVID vaccines are deadly. The shape of the "onset curve" makes this obvious. An estimated 676,000 Americans have been killed.

Executive summary

72% of the IUS death reports in the 33 year history of VAERS are from one vaccine: the COVID-19 vaccine.

Unlike other vaccines, the COVID vaccines keep on killing people, for months and years after the shot.

The statistics I’ve been able to collect estimate that the COVID vaccines kill 1 person per 1,000 doses. These vaccines aren’t close to safe, so we don’t even have to get into a discussion as to whether they are effective.

They are clearly unsafe and nobody should be taking them.

And we can prove that with one VAERS query which nobody can explain away. Anyone can replicate this themselves.

The VAERS query

Go to medalerts.org, and set the parameters are follows:

1. Graph the Onset Interval and Vaccines

2. Died: Yes

3. Demographics: US states

and

VAERS result

The line with all the deaths is the COVID vaccine.

Found 16,396 cases where Location is U.S. States and Patient Died

Figure 1. The onset curve of the COVID vaccine looks nothing like any other vaccine in US history.

Figure 2. The legend for Figure 1

What does this mean?

It means that the COVID vaccines are killing people.

The onset interval is the interval from the time of vaccination until the first symptoms occurred. Since we are looking at death reports, these will be the time until the first symptoms preceding the death appear or, in many cases, the elapsed time until the death itself.

A safe vaccine should have a peak near day 0 just due to coincidence causing false reports in the first few days after the vaccine as people falsely associate the death event with the date of vaccination. The rest of the curve should be flat. This is the case for many of the vaccines. For example, the Rubella vaccine doesn’t have a single death report in the history of VAERS (but does have 800 adverse event reports).

The flu vaccine (FLU4) has an onset curve for deaths that looks like this, but keep in mind that the FLU4 vaccine can be given with other vaccines in the same visit, so it’s hard to separate out just the effect of the FLU4 vaccine, but the point is that if vaccines are safe, the death rates reported after the vaccines should be perfectly flat since deaths are random with respect to a vaccination date.

Figure 3. The onset curve for deaths for the FLU4 vaccine. Compare that to the COVID vaccine in Figure 1.

What you can see from Figure 1 above is that the COVID vaccines don’t look at all like a safe vaccine: the peaks of deaths just keep going and going. The peaks end after 2.5 years because the COVID vaccines have only been out for 2.5 years.

In particular, note that:

• the peak at 90-120 days is larger than the peaks at 0 and 1 days

• the peak at 15-30 days is nearly as high as the peaks at 0 and 1 days

• the peak at 1-2 years is unprecedented

• For the COVID vaccine, it’s not even close to that.

• Many other vaccines show a death peak 15-30 days out. This is clearly caused by the vaccines. In other words, many of the vaccines the CDC believes are safe are, in fact, killing people.

72% of the deaths in the history of VAERS are from the COVID vaccine

VAERS queries show:

1. Found 11,860 cases where Location is U.S. States and Vaccine is COVID19 or COVID19-2 and Patient Died

2. Found 16,396 cases where Location is U.S. States and Patient Died

This is 72.3% of all deaths are from the COVID vaccines. This is extraordinary. The sheer number of deaths here as well as the onset interval above, are clear evidence we have the most deadly vaccine in US history that we are forcing people to take.

Death rate from the COVID vaccine: 1 per 1,000 doses

I’ve written in the past about the death rates from the COVID vaccine. Here are over 10 different ways to estimate the death rate and they all get the same answer.

Is there another set of 10 independent methods that consistently get a different answer?

1. Recently, Denis Rancourt looked at large population data in Australia and Israel and estimated a rate of 1 death per 1,000 doses (see page 23: “… it is not unreasonable to assume an all-population global value of vDFR = 0.1%).

2. I just got data from an employee at Apple Valley Village Health Care Center in MN. They gave shots to their 140 residents on Dec 28 & 29, 2020. In the week ending 1/3/21, there were 0 deaths. But in the two weeks ending 1/24/21, there were 20 deaths, and average of 10 deaths a week. So how did they go from an average of 1 death a week in the last 5 weeks of 2020 to now 10 deaths a week right after the vaccine rolled out? How can you explain that if it wasn’t the vaccine? Was it COVID? Nope. There were 27 COVID cases in 2020, but 0 COVID deaths over the full year! So there were 140 shots and 18 excess deaths (since 1 death a month was expected so 20-2=18). That’s a kill rate for the vaccine of 128 deaths per 1,000 doses, which is absurdly high (around 1 in 8). But that’s to be expected since it is an elderly population so the death rate will be higher than the 1 per 1,000 average deaths per dose for a standard population.

3. My estimates agree with this. In fact, just recently, I heard Jay Bonnar’s anecdote which confirms this. Jay had 15 friends, all vaccinated, die unexpectedly. There were about 14,000 vaccine doses given to his friends. So his story is right in line with my 1 in 1,000 estimate (we expected 14 deaths and observed 15). The death rate could be more than 1 per 1,000 doses on average because there could be direct friends of Jay who died who Jay didn’t know about. The 1 per 1,000 is a lower bound. It is statistically very unlikely if the rate is less than this.

4. From VAERS, we have a minimum of 11,500 excess deaths (assuming we only count deaths that we know for sure were in the US) and an under-reporting factor of 41, we get 471,000 vaccine-caused deaths at a minimum (since 41 is the best case under-reporting factor). This conservative estimate is a death rate of 1 per 1,400 doses, which is lower than my 1 in 1,000 best estimate.

5. But if we use a more realistic value of 17,729 deaths (where we exclude foreign deaths which are typically well identified), subtract out 500 “coincidental” deaths (that just happened to coincide with the vaccination date), we get 17,529*50 (where 50 is a more realistic factor for deaths since 41 was for the very best case of anaphylaxis), we get 876,000 deaths from 676M COVID vaccine doses administered, which means the death rate estimated from VAERS is that we are killing 1.3 people per 1,000 doses (i.e., we are killing 1 person for every 770 doses).

6. Nobody has been able to explain the 17,729 deaths reported into VAERS. How can this happen if the vaccine is safe? If it wasn’t the vaccine that killed these people, what did? Over 72% of all death reports in VAERS are from the COVID vaccine. If it wasn’t the vaccine that killed these people, explain what did? NOBODY CAN DO THAT. The fact checkers cannot provide any kind of rational explanation for this, ONLY HAND-WAVING arguments with ZERO evidentiary support. Not a single person in the world has ever been able to explain how so many death reports got in VAERS (HHS verifies these reports before they are published, so the deaths are real and the CDC investigates all the deaths). These are NOT background deaths (the typical hand-waving arguments), because the causes of death don’t match up with normal background death patterns as you can plainly see by comparing Fig 1 with Fig 3 above. Do they look the same shape to you?

7. We can also look at independent surveys that have not been retracted in the peer-reviewed literature because they weren’t published in the peer-reviewed literature. In this case, to date, there has only been one independent survey (by Rasmussen) that has ever been done comparing COVID death counts to COVID vaccine death counts. So I’m not cherry picking… this is the ONLY survey. The Rasmussen survey found that a comparable number of people died from the vaccine as from COVID. My own surveys, done by independent polling firms using their lists, not mine, found exactly the same thing: the vaccine has killed as many people as COVID. There are 1.1M cumulative deaths from COVID. But probably half of those are people who died with COVID, so maybe 600K true COVID deaths. So this suggests around 600,000 vaccine deaths which is very close to my 1 in 1,000 doses estimate.

8. We can also look at excess death rates in places likely to have good counts, high vaccination rates, and not in the public eye such as the province of Alberta. The data shows all-cause mortality jumped by 20% from 2019 vs. 2021. If half of that was COVID and half was the COVID vaccine this would match the predicted 10% increase in all-cause mortality caused by the vaccine.

9. Another clue is to look at COVID death rates post vaccine to see if the vaccine might be saving lives. These rates should have dropped after the vaccine rolled out if the vaccines worked. Yet COVID hospitalizations in Ontario were up by 31% in 2022 and deaths were up by 39% in 2022. But the variants were less deadly. COVID deaths were around 7% of overall deaths.

10. We can look at rates published in the BMJ: 20,000 doses of the COVID vaccine created 23 new suspicious deaths in Norway which is an excess death rate that exceeds 1 in 1,000 excess deaths per dose.

11. We can look at independent calculations made by Dr. Naomi Wolf when she was asked if my estimates were correct. She used her own methods to validate my numbers. Her validation of my estimates can be found here.

12. We can look at anecdotes in our local community, such as skilled nursing facilities after the vaccine rollout. There isn’t a single “success” story that anyone has ever heard of. Instead, we get stories like this one where 25% of the residents just dropped dead within days after getting the COVID vaccine and there’s a complete press blackout.

13. Crawford analysis of 25% of the world’s population returned 411 deaths per 1M doses which is within a factor of 2 of my estimate.

14. We can see what others think as well:

    

So I’ll stick with my more conservative 1 death per 1,000 doses and I feel pretty good about that being a pretty good estimate. It’s nearly midway between the two VAERS estimates as well ((471+876)/2=674K deaths)!

And it’s also very close to the number Mark Skidmore got from his surveys before they unethically retracted his paper. Skidmore just looked at 2021 deaths in his estimate of 278,000 people for COVID vaccine deaths the first year. Note that all reasons for the retraction do NOTHING to change the data he collected. They never claimed his data was wrong. They never attempted to make a more accurate estimate than in the paper. It is very troubling to the journal that Skidmore’s result match all of the sources above.

Huh? Why wouldn’t this have shown up in the clinical trials with 22,000 people in the treatment arm?

If the COVID vaccine was killing 1 person per 1,000 doses over 2 years, then 44 people should have died unexpectedly in the Pfizer trial in the vaccine arm. In a 6 month observation period, this would amount to 11 excess deaths in the vaccine arm, but there were only 4 excess deaths in the vaccine arm assuming they were able to track all the deaths accurately.

There are several explanations for this:

1. A 0.1% overall increase in all-cause mortality (ACM) is an overall 10% increase is base rate ACM. Nobody’s going to notice a change this small. This is what makes this vaccine so insidious: the death rate is just below the “notice” threshold.

2. In the Pfizer trials, there were 21 deaths in the vaccine group and 17 in the placebo group (see this article). My conservative estimate was 10% increase in ACM, but a 23% increase was observed. So my estimate looks conservative. Also, there were 4 cardiac deaths in the vaccine group vs. 1 in the placebo group. Three excess cardiac deaths on a base of around 20 deaths is a 15% increase. So using this metric as well, we appear to be “in range” on our 1 per 1,000 estimate. Even though this could be interpreted as causing 22 deaths in the vaccine arm, the 1 in 1,000 should be interpreted as a 10% increase in ACM which in this case was very low (it was a 6 month study in a very healthy group who died at a rate much lower than the general population). Jay Bonnar, who knows around 5,600 vaccinated people had 15 deaths from the vaccine over 2.5 years which is 3 deaths in a 6 month period. The clinical trial had 4X as many people, so we’d expect to see 12 deaths from the vaccine.

3. It wasn’t the same vaccine that was used in the trials vs. in commercial production. The commercial vaccines were more dangerous and had a variation in the lethality mix.

4. They may have undercounted the deaths because some were lost to follow up. How hard did they try?

The lack of a single success anecdote should be very troubling to everyone

If the vaccine really work to reduce all-cause mortality (ACM), it should be EASY to find a geriatric medical practice where the ACM of the vaccinated is lower than the ACM of the unvaccinated; it should be nearly 100% of all practices in the US. But so far, I've been unable to locate even a single one. Weird, isn't it?

Here’s my latest attempt:

Notice to Reuter’s Fact Check

I emailed this notice to Reuter’s Fact Check who has been assigned to discredit what I wrote.

My email

Yes, the evidence is all in the article. I cite several COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT methods at arriving at the estimate INCLUDING statistics published in the BMJ.

None of these sources colluded with each other and they arrived at the same numbers.

If you want to fact check this, you should contact 10 different sources and get their estimate and methodology.

If the 1 in 1,000 is wrong and the actual number is 1 in 932, I’m fine with that. Or it could be 10% less than what I thought.

Jay Bonnar’s anecdote which you can VERIFY YOURSELF proves that the number is also around 1 in 1,000 as well. It could kill more than that, but it has to kill at least that number or Jay’s anecdote simply is statistically impossible.

Your task is simple:

1. Show us the correct number

2. Show us that independent expert agree on that number and that it can be derived at least 5 different ways all getting the same answer. After all, if you have the right number, everyone should agree on it.

3. Explain how all the data sources I used were wrong. There were over 10 different methods and you’ll need to disprove all of them if you want a convincing fact check. Simply point out the errors on each of them. If you can find an error in Crawford’s work, you can win $1M, for example.

4. Don’t forget to include a link to my article. It’s amazing how many fact checkers “forget” to link to the original post so that people can see for themselves what is being fact checked.

Before you write up your article, you should have me review it for comments.

Because facts are important and you want to make sure I get the same opportunity to attack THEIR argument as you’re going to give them to attack my data, right?

If you have any questions, please feel free to call me at xxxxxxx.

-steve

Their email to me

From: reutersfactcheck@thomsonreuters.com
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2023 10:35 AM
To: Steve Kirsch
Subject: Fact-checking inquiry

Dear Steve,

We are reaching out from Reuters news agency’s fact-checking team regarding a claim we are seeing circulating on social media. As you're aware from our previous correspondence, our team works on monitoring and assessing potentially false or misleading information online.

We have seen posts online that say "COVID vaccines are killing an estimated 1 person per 1,000 doses (676,000 dead Americans)", examples here and here. The claim appears to stem from your article published on Aug. 6, 2023.

So far, we’ve found evidence that discredits the claim. VAERS reports of deaths or adverse reactions are unverified and are not a population-representative sample, so cannot be used for this type of calculation.

The main question we'd like to put forward to you is: Do you have evidence that COVID vaccines are killing an estimated 1 person per 1,000 doses, resulting in 676,000 deaths in the U.S.? If so, would you be willing to share it?

If there is no evidence available, do you stand by your comments? Our deadline for comment is August 11, 2023, at 2 p.m. EST.

Thank you for your time and consideration on this.

Kind regards,
Reuters Fact Check 

Summary

A simple VAERS query on the COVID vaccines for death and looking at the onset interval makes it immediately obvious to anyone that the COVID vaccines are the most deadly vaccines in the 33 year history of the VAERS system. Nothing else is even close.

The people who work at the CDC are paid to look the other way and mislead America into thinking the COVID vaccines are safe.

There is no possible way these vaccines are safe. In my next article, I’ll talk more about the Jay Bonnar case and I’ll make this crystal clear to everyone.