You wrote about John Sullivan's plot that "the key is the orange mortality rate goes from around 2,500 in August to over 5,000 in December".
However in 2018-2022, the CMR of the 80-89 age group in New Zealand ranged from about 6,635 to 7,419 deaths per 100,000 person-years, but the upper end of the age band is overrepresented in the NZ da…
You wrote about John Sullivan's plot that "the key is the orange mortality rate goes from around 2,500 in August to over 5,000 in December".
However in 2018-2022, the CMR of the 80-89 age group in New Zealand ranged from about 6,635 to 7,419 deaths per 100,000 person-years, but the upper end of the age band is overrepresented in the NZ data compared to the lower end: https://mongol-fi.github.io/moar.html#Representation_of_age_groups_in_the_dataset. Based on the age composition of the vaccinated people, I got an average baseline of about 8,463 for the CMR in December 2021, which is higher than the historical CMR for ages 80-89 because the upper end of the age group is overrepresented in the data compared to the lower end, and because I followed people who were 80-89 years old at the time of vaccination, so many of them were more than half a year older by December 2021.
When I took the first dose of each person who was 80-89 years old at the time of their dose and I followed the crude mortality rate of the cohort on each day until the end of the data, I got the same brief spike in mortality in June 2021 as Sullivan, but after that it took until June 2022 before the 14-day moving average of the CMR reached above the baseline. And even then the CMR only stayed above the baseline briefly, and June 2022 was in the middle of a COVID wave, and it was winter but I didn't account for seasonality when I calculated my baseline: https://mongol-fi.github.io/moar.html#Plot_by_John_Sullivan_for_crude_mortality_rate_by_date_in_ages_80_89.
The reason why the CMR of ages 80-89 was initially so far below the baseline could be because the healthy vaccinee effect seems to be stronger in older age groups than younger age groups.
"seems to be stronger," ? what does it last for 4 months instead of just 3 ? I don't believe there is any prophylactic effect of the vaccine at any age group, that is just speculation. I am late 70's and have avoided any 'flu' vaccine as much more likely to cause contraction than to protect from it, and the same here. Focus should be on bolstering natural immune, and protocols for early intervention if necessary, but there is no magic pill that allows society to eat puke all their lives and then get a 'shot' when bad habits start killing oneself.
You wrote about John Sullivan's plot that "the key is the orange mortality rate goes from around 2,500 in August to over 5,000 in December".
However in 2018-2022, the CMR of the 80-89 age group in New Zealand ranged from about 6,635 to 7,419 deaths per 100,000 person-years, but the upper end of the age band is overrepresented in the NZ data compared to the lower end: https://mongol-fi.github.io/moar.html#Representation_of_age_groups_in_the_dataset. Based on the age composition of the vaccinated people, I got an average baseline of about 8,463 for the CMR in December 2021, which is higher than the historical CMR for ages 80-89 because the upper end of the age group is overrepresented in the data compared to the lower end, and because I followed people who were 80-89 years old at the time of vaccination, so many of them were more than half a year older by December 2021.
When I took the first dose of each person who was 80-89 years old at the time of their dose and I followed the crude mortality rate of the cohort on each day until the end of the data, I got the same brief spike in mortality in June 2021 as Sullivan, but after that it took until June 2022 before the 14-day moving average of the CMR reached above the baseline. And even then the CMR only stayed above the baseline briefly, and June 2022 was in the middle of a COVID wave, and it was winter but I didn't account for seasonality when I calculated my baseline: https://mongol-fi.github.io/moar.html#Plot_by_John_Sullivan_for_crude_mortality_rate_by_date_in_ages_80_89.
The reason why the CMR of ages 80-89 was initially so far below the baseline could be because the healthy vaccinee effect seems to be stronger in older age groups than younger age groups.
"seems to be stronger," ? what does it last for 4 months instead of just 3 ? I don't believe there is any prophylactic effect of the vaccine at any age group, that is just speculation. I am late 70's and have avoided any 'flu' vaccine as much more likely to cause contraction than to protect from it, and the same here. Focus should be on bolstering natural immune, and protocols for early intervention if necessary, but there is no magic pill that allows society to eat puke all their lives and then get a 'shot' when bad habits start killing oneself.