One aspect of the NZ data missed by most analysts is that they do not factor in the non pharmaceutical interventions that existed in NZ from mid-2021 through to mid-2022. As an island state that saw what was happening months earlier in other countries, they locked down the borders and were super vigilant with protecting the elderly from …
One aspect of the NZ data missed by most analysts is that they do not factor in the non pharmaceutical interventions that existed in NZ from mid-2021 through to mid-2022. As an island state that saw what was happening months earlier in other countries, they locked down the borders and were super vigilant with protecting the elderly from circulation. This prevented over 1000 normal winter season deaths in each year of that time period. So what we saw in 2020, where we had a record low death rate, especially in the 65+, should have continued in 2021 and 2022, before Covid really hir. If you overlay the weekly death rates, from Stats NZ of those older age cohorts, you see something flipped around week18 of 2021, where the death rate showed a step increase, despite the strict restrictions and no Covid, or flu about. One would need to lo to look at the causes of death on death certificates and vaccination dates to get a handle on this. Vaccination status, as published by NZ MOH wouldn't be a reliable source as they delayed rhe assignment of 'vaccinated' by weeks, or even months. Ben, at USMortality plays with rhis scenario to show how this effects the Crude Mortality Rates over time. If it wasn't the flu, or other winter malaise that precipitated the step in 2021, what was it. It can't be population, as the NZ population stalled over that period . It can't be aging as those effects require a generation pass through. I speak from experience hers; my mother was in a nursing home at the time. I visited her in early May of 2021. I needed a PCR test to see her AND they were just about to start requiring proof of a flu jab. Everyone was temperature tested. This was all new.
One aspect of the NZ data missed by most analysts is that they do not factor in the non pharmaceutical interventions that existed in NZ from mid-2021 through to mid-2022. As an island state that saw what was happening months earlier in other countries, they locked down the borders and were super vigilant with protecting the elderly from circulation. This prevented over 1000 normal winter season deaths in each year of that time period. So what we saw in 2020, where we had a record low death rate, especially in the 65+, should have continued in 2021 and 2022, before Covid really hir. If you overlay the weekly death rates, from Stats NZ of those older age cohorts, you see something flipped around week18 of 2021, where the death rate showed a step increase, despite the strict restrictions and no Covid, or flu about. One would need to lo to look at the causes of death on death certificates and vaccination dates to get a handle on this. Vaccination status, as published by NZ MOH wouldn't be a reliable source as they delayed rhe assignment of 'vaccinated' by weeks, or even months. Ben, at USMortality plays with rhis scenario to show how this effects the Crude Mortality Rates over time. If it wasn't the flu, or other winter malaise that precipitated the step in 2021, what was it. It can't be population, as the NZ population stalled over that period . It can't be aging as those effects require a generation pass through. I speak from experience hers; my mother was in a nursing home at the time. I visited her in early May of 2021. I needed a PCR test to see her AND they were just about to start requiring proof of a flu jab. Everyone was temperature tested. This was all new.