Over 200,000 Americans killed by the COVID vaccine: 10 methods, same answer

Many people have no clue how many people have been killed by the COVID vaccines. I list ten different methods and they all given similar results. You can question each one, but not all 10.

Executive summary

There are many different ways to estimate the excess deaths caused by the COVID vaccines.

Funny thing is, no matter which way you choose, you get the same answer: over 200,000.

The methods

Here is a list of different methods to estimate the number of Americans killed by the COVID shots:

1. Big data analysis (Rancourt et al., 78 countries, see p286): vDFR=.00127. Therefore, 0.00127*672M doses= 853,000 deaths

2. Public survey (Skidmore): 217,000 in 2021 alone. No estimate for subsequent years.

3. VAERS (How many deaths were caused by the covid vaccines? by UK Professor Norman Fenton): 120,000 + 70,000 = 190,000 deaths minimum.

4. Doctors I know personally: Estimates came in consistently at 4 to 5 per 1,000 vaccinated. Since there are 270M Americans who got the shot, this predicts 1.1M deaths.

5. Survey of medical practices (46 complete responses): 3 per 1,000 vaccinated by excluding sites claiming 1% or more death rates. This predicts 810,000 deaths.

6. Paramedic survey (9 responses): If we ignore all the high reports, the average of the five remaining reporting 5 or fewer COVID vaccine deaths was 2.5. Since there are 100,000 paramedics, this suggests that 250,000 deaths would be a conservative estimate. Ignoring the largest two reports as outliers, the average was 6 suggesting that as many as 600,000 deaths is a ballpark estimate at the true number.

7. VAERS estimate: There are over 19,058 American deaths in the US VAERS system (per medalerts.org query). Assuming 70% are caused by the vaccine and an under-reporting factor of 50, we get 670,000 deaths.

8. Large geriatric medical practice: Tidewater Family Practice is a medical practice that specializes in the elderly. Their all-cause mortality rates went from 10 a year before the vax rolled out to over 48 deaths in 2023. It’s hard to extrapolate that to a normal population.

9. Rasmussen survey: Vaccine deaths were 45% relative to COVID deaths. So given that there were over 1M COVID deaths, this translates into 450,000 COVID deaths. Note that half of America doesn’t think the COVID vaccine killed anyone so we expected this estimate to be lower by a factor of 2 or more.

10. Ethical Skeptic analysis of natural cause excess deaths. He found 755K died, constituting a vaccine fatality rate of .33% per person vaccinated which is remarkably close to what the doctors I know estimated (0.4%). He notes the COVID IFR was 0.27%. The baseline for the chart was from 2014 to 2019.

    

11. Czech Republic data: Moderna had 30% higher 1 year ASMR than Pfizer on an absolute basis. Assuming Pfizer is 100% safe and half of America got Moderna, this would be a 15% ACM increase for 1 year minimum. Since the US mortality is around 3M per year, a 15% increase for one year is 450,000 deaths.

12. Jay Bonnar’s statistics: Jay has nearly 15,000 friends in his Outlook contacts and 15 of them died unexpectedly after getting their COVID shots. Jay has only one friend prior to the vaccine rollout die unexpectedly. In addition, he only lost one friend to COVID. So he lost 1 friend per 1,000 vaccinated. So extrapolating, we’d estimate 270,000 COVID deaths. Jay says it’s quite possible he wasn’t aware of all deaths among his friends, so this should be considered a lower-bound data point.

13. Denver police officer anecdote: I’m in the process of trying to get confirmation of this via FOIA to the Denver police department, but this is a 50X increase in natural cause deaths after the shots rolled out and I don’t think the police officer is joking about this. I’ve talked to him personally.

    

One paramedic summed it up very nicely: “I've been a paramedic almost 20 years. Since these shots came out I've seen things I've never seen before, otherwise perfectly healthy young people dropping dead for no reason. It's been crazy, and I really pray it doesn't get worse.” See the paramedic and doctor survey.

Other methods

You can use anecdotes to compute a lower bound on vaccine deaths as I showed in this article.

COVID vaccine likely killed 45% more people than the virus did

1. One of the doctors reported 5 vaccine deaths, 0 COVID deaths.

2. Bonnar observed 15 vaccine deaths, 1 COVID virus death

3. Tidewater in 2022 had 26 vaccine-related deaths and 2 COVID virus deaths

I was not even looking for differences in COVID vs. vaccine deaths.

These observations however, suggest is it statistically unlikely that the virus killed more people than the vaccine. The reverse is much more likely.

The probability is 3e-13 for Bonnar to observe 15 vaccine deaths and 1 COVID death if the death rate from the vaccine and COVID virus are comparable. So if Jay is the only one in the US observing this statistic, this suggests that the death rate from the vaccine must be at least 1.95X higher the rate of death from COVID.

Here’s how to do the math for that. Suppose there is 1 vax death per COVID death. Then for 1 covid death, we’d expect 1 vaccine death, but we observed 15 which is very improbable. But if there are 1.95 vaccine deaths per COVID deaths, then when Jay saw 1 COVID death, he should have seen 1.95 vaccine deaths, but observed 15. The chance of that is 1 in 360 million. So based on this anecdote, it’s likely that there were at least 2 vaccine deaths per COVID death.

Is this possible?

One of our surveys of the American public, done by an independent marketing firm which randomly sampled American households, looked at COVID deaths vs. vaccine deaths within a household and found it was nearly 3X higher for vaccine deaths (36 vax deaths vs. 13 virus deaths in 1000 households surveyed).

Traditional OR= 2.8353016278327483
95% Confidence Interval(low=1.4568691457797631, high=5.860783092015121)

This is further statistical evidence that the number killed by the vaccine is likely at least 45% more than killed by the virus.

Summary

Using more than 10 different methods, we estimated a minimum death toll of the COVID shot of 217,000 Americans or more.

Lawmakers should find that extremely troubling.