The population CFR didn't drop post rollout. Huge red flag that the raw data is showing that the COVID vaccines had ZERO mortality benefit!
One graph is really all you need to show no effect. A few other graphs are useful for showing that there are no alternative explanations for the lack of a CFR drop.
Executive summary
Above is a graph of the cumulative population case fatality rate (CFR) in the UK, US, Europe, Israel, and the world. The CFR is defined as COVID deaths / COVID cases.
See how it doesn’t drop anywhere after the shots are rolled out?
Vaccines work by either:
reducing infections
reducing the case fatality rate
both.
The vaccine was rolled out everywhere during the alpha variant and older people were prioritized. That last part is key.
If you are measuring the whole population CFR (which is most accurately done using the cumulative CFR since you don’t have to exactly match deaths and cases), then if cases in the elderly were reduced, the population CFR should drop since it would reflect the lower CFR of the young.
So it means that if either 1 or 2 was true, the population CFR should drop.
It didn’t move down. And all the explanations for why it didn’t are nonsensical.
All the raw data is consistent with a vaccine that had no benefit for cases, the CFR, COVID deaths, and ICU admissions all of which we can confirm independently didn’t change.
The bottom line is that the CFR lines are flat in all these countries because the shots did not reduce COVID mortality. They were the world’s biggest con job.
Could there have been another explanation for the lack of an effect anywhere? No because when we look in detail at the Czech Republic data, we find that all the excuses fall apart.
I show that the population CFR didn’t fall, there was no discontinuity in cumulative cases, and there was no discontinuity in cumulative deaths.
In short, the raw data is 100% consistent with the rollout of a placebo vaccine.
Czech data shows that there is no alternative explanation for the lack of a drop in the population CFR other than the shots didn’t work
I can show this in great detail with the Czech data where we have exact matching between COVID cases and the associated COVID death in every 5 year age group.
This data overcomes the excuse that “oh, they reduced COVID testing to EXACTLY compensate for the reduced COVID deaths caused by the vaccines and it was done in each age group based on the vaccination schedule for that age group so that it would give everyone the false impression that the vaccine didn’t work.”
For the Czech data, testing frequency does NOT matter.
In the Czech data, even if they changed testing, it didn’t matter because they tracked the deaths for each COVID case that they identified. This gives us very accurate CFR numbers regardless of the testing frequency. For everyone, they tracked whether you died or recovered. So the CFR is extremely accurate.
Did they catch ALL the cases? No.
But it doesn’t matter. We aren’t looking for an absolute CFR. We are just looking for whether the population CFR reduced or not after the shots rolled out. And we’ll show it didn’t go down from baseline right before the shots were supposed to start reducing the CFR.
Let’s start with cases (below). Here are cases experienced by those born in 1950, regardless of vaccination status. By 2021-22 (week 22 which is basically June 1), cases have dropped below 100 cases in a week for that 5 year age range, so the population CFR calculations start to get noisy at that point.
But this gives the vaccine plenty of time to become effective and show how it is eliminating cases and/or dropping the CFR in the elderly since rollouts in the Czech Republic started before Jan, 2021.
Here’s the vaccination rollout schedule for each age group in the Czech Republic showing there is plenty of time to measure CFR before cases evaporated by ISO week 22 (line in red).
Here is the vaccination curve for those 65 and older which shows that nearly everyone over 65 was vaccinated before cases ran out and that the vaccination rate was roughly linear:
Below is the CFR by age for older people in the Czech Republic.
See how it doesn’t go down when the vaccines were rolled out starting in December 2020 to these older cohorts? There were plenty of cases available to move the CFR down prior to 2021-week 22 (denoted as 2021-22). No effect. In fact, to my eyes, it looks like the CFR went up, but that’s just me.
Let’s take a closer look by looking at the CFR computed each week.
Below is the CFR calculated a weekly basis for the different 5 year age groups.
The top line is those born in 1930 and they are 5 year age groups. See how even the weekly CFR numbers don’t drop? The cumulative numbers above just smooth out the noise, they don’t hide the signal.
Similarly, the population cumulative CFR which gives you a more accurate look at the overall trendline (since it smooths out the noise) didn’t move down either until Delta and Omicron. It was the variant that dropped the CFR, not the vaccine.
Note that Delta actually had a lower CFR than Alpha as you can see from the chart. And you’ll see the exact same thing in the Israel CFR graph below. Quite stunning how all these CFR graphs agree, isn’t it? Even small changes in the CFR appear instantly.
The vaccine didn’t reduce cases and we can see that directly from the curves
Below you can see 1940 vs. 1950 rollout vs. cases when you roll out a vaccine earlier to a group, yet the population cases for each cohort drop at the same time which is consistent with “the vaccine didn’t reduce cases” because the vaccine works at 50% efficacy just 2 weeks after the first dose, so there was plenty of time to see it work before cases dropped for everyone. If the vaccine worked, we should have seen cases diverge in the two cohorts. Instead, the cases matched in the cohorts before and after the rollout which means the vaccine didn’t reduce cases.
And if there was no benefit during alpha, the chance of any mortality benefit during the other waves is slim to none as ChatGPT validated for me (see Full ChatGPT discussion).
Below is the critical “all ages CFR” for Czechia: a single line for all ages. See how the CFR is higher than the baseline CFR on Jan 4, 2021 in every single week? Only a few people were jabbed before Jan 1, 2021, so we need to wait to at least Jan 14 to see the “miracle” happen which should start happening 2 weeks after the first jab.
What we see is that every CFR measured after Jan 4, 2021 was higher than our Jan 4 reference value which is essentially the value “before” the magical vaccines were starting to become effective. No drop from baseline CFR for the variant.
But Professor Morris says that the full population CFR obscures the small number of elderly who dropped out of the CFR because they were vaccinated first and weren’t getting cases. OK, so let’s take a closer look then by limiting our population CFR only to the elderly so even if only a fraction of the elderly weren’t getting cases, we’d be able to see a drop.
Here’s the over 65 year old population CFR and we see the same thing: it goes up as the vaccines roll out.
And finally, just to respond to Professor Morris’s challenge, here is the CFR over time for the vaxxed vs. unvaxxed during the alpha wave before cases evaporated:
I’m not seeing any CFR benefit for the vaccinated. Are you?
Some people who believe in the vaccines would argue that “that’s because it was just the elderly that the vax didn’t work on that were having cases” or “that’s because they didn’t test the vaccinated unless they were really sick.”
Fine. That’s certainly possible. But that’s why I keep going back to the population CFR. If those vaccinated elderly weren’t getting cases (because the vaccine was so good) or were not being tested (because they didn’t want to know if it worked), then the population CFR should drop because it’s just the data from the younger people that should be impacting the population CFR.
Let’s wrap this up with two other stunning observations: the vaccine didn’t impact the trendline of cases or COVID deaths either. This is 100% consistent with the no CFR impact.
This is from OWID: cumulative cases in the Czech Republic. See how there is no knee at all in the cases trendline? With such an effective intervention, you’d expect a major discontinuity in the cases trendline if it was 80%-90% effective as Morris says. I’m not seeing a discontinuity in the trendline (red line), are you? The raw data is a perfect fit to the “no effect” hypothesis. So this graph, plus the 1940 vs. 1950 graph above should settle the question.
Similarly, COVID deaths didn’t break the trendline either when the vaccines rolled out. The trendline ended when the variant died out. Basically, there was no discontinuity in the COVID death trendline. That’s odd, because the most vulnerable (and most likely to die) got their COVID vaccines first. Yet there is no discontinuity in the trendline, which started before the vaccines rolled out. Again, this is consistent with a placebo vaccine.
But Professor Morris says the ICU cases are way down due to the shots. But the data says the opposite. If you compare cases to ICU admissions, the third peak, which is after vaccinations rolled out, you find that the vaccine appears to have increased your risk of being admitted to the ICU.
Bottom line: There was no discontinuity in the trendline for CFR, cases, or deaths. So the raw data shows there was no benefit that could be observed. And looking into the details we didn’t find a benefit either. It’s the smoking gun and the Czech Republic data helps us to rule out all possible excuses.
US surveillance data confirmation
This is from Henjin. I haven’t validated myself yet, but it looks correct. When you extract the surveillance data, you have to focus on records where they know the associated death or not so this drastically limits the number of records available. This creates a selection bias. The Czech data is much better because every case was coded.
Look at the lower right whole population chart. The CFR went down until March, but it was variant driven. During March, alpha took over. It should have started flatlining at that point, but the population CFR went up with March 2021 being a minimum. That’s indicative of a vaccine failure.
So we have confirmation from the US data population CFR as well that the COVID vaccines simply didn’t work. It was in plain sight the whole time if anyone looked.
US Nursing home CFR validation
Below is the CFR from all the US Nursing homes with deaths advanced to match cases. See how the CFR drops reliably each and every time there is a new milder variant? And see how stable the CFR is even though cases go up and down during late 2020? The CFR was completely stable, only rising after the vaccine rolled out.
People who claim the CFR is “inaccurate” hate this chart. It shows the CFR is extremely accurate. Look at the STUNNING drop during Delta and during Omicron! As soon as Omicron rises, the CFR plummets. Like clockwork. No ambiguity.
So the lack of a CFR drop during the vaccine rollout should be a HUGE red flag! How can it be an accurate indicator of lower CFR of a variant, but not fall with the vaccine?
Israel OWID validation
Here’s the cumulative CFR in Israel where they did a great job in measuring COVID cases and deaths.
OWID doesn’t match cases and deaths but when you use the cumulative CFR, you worry less about the matching and you get pretty good results as you can see below.
See how the cumulative population CFR drops during Delta and Omicron? It dropped fast with Omicron due to the speed the variant engulfed the country.
Do you see any drop for the vaccine? No. That’s when the CFR went up!
So even in PLAIN SIGHT of everyone, we had the proof that the vaccine didn’t work.
This is the same thing we just saw in the US nursing home data… the CFR didn’t drop during the rollout (it went up just like we see here), and it dropped in each variant. I’ll show you the graph below.
This sort of massive drop in the CFR with the variants is what the COVID vaccine should have caused in January in Israel if the vaccine worked!
Israel rolled out COVID-19 vaccines to the elderly population very rapidly, leading the world in early vaccination coverage so if there was going to be a drop, we’d have seen it in the Israel data. Check this out.
Key Timeline for Elderly (Age 60+):
December 20, 2020: Israel began its national COVID-19 vaccination campaign, prioritizing healthcare workers and people aged 60 and over.
By January 10, 2021: Over 72% of people aged 60+ had received their first dose.
By February 1, 2021: Over 80% of people aged 60+ were fully vaccinated
Israel strictly adhered to the 21 day between doses. And the vaccine fully works 2 weeks after dose 2.
This means that by Feb 1, there was plenty of time for people to 2 weeks after there second dose which is when full protection kicks in. There were plenty of COVID cases available for the CFR to drop in Feb. And yet, nothing happened!
The reason for the drop between Dec 1 and Jan 12 is a variant changeover to alpha. It wasn’t the vaccine because the drop was going on before the vaccines rolled out which is a sign of a variant change. Had it been the vaccines, the trend would have kept on going as they rolled out more vaccines and everyone got more and more immune.
But you can see the drop stopped abruptly at the very point when the vaccine should have “kicked in” and reduced cases! There were plenty of cases available until early March 2021 in Israel and yet the CFR didn’t budge. This is screaming to the world “the vaccine didn’t work!” But nobody was paying attention.
The vaccine didn’t reduce the population CFR in other waves either
The simplest way to demonstrate that this lack of effectiveness wasn’t just limited to the alpha variant is to show you the US vs. Albania population cumulative CFR.
Albania was under vaccinated relative to the US as you can see below.
Yet the CFR aligned with the US before and after the vaccine rollout. Stunning isn’t it? It’s “as if” the vaccine had no effect! There isn’t really any other way to explain this that is credible.
All the COVID testing practice changes in the Czech Republic during 2021 would have lowered the CFR if anything
Morris himself admitted, “When there is more testing there are more mild cases detected and CFR goes down given constant number of deaths.” He said this after I pointed out that in the Czech Republic, the CFR was computed on the record-level data so if you didn’t have a COVID case, you didn’t have a COVID death. His point is that if you ramp up testing, even in that scenario, you’ll find more mild COVID cases.
OK, they ramped up testing in the Czech Republic, not down. So if anything, the CFR would drop. So it would work in the same direction as the vaccine. The combination of the two should have had a massive impact. And yet there was no drop in the population CFR.
Here were the testing changes in the Czech Republic from ChatGPT:
Key Changes in Early 2021
Mandatory Workplace Testing: Starting in March 2021, the Czech government implemented mandatory weekly COVID-19 testing for employees in companies and factories that remained operational. This measure aimed to identify asymptomatic cases and curb workplace transmission. Time
Expanded Testing Capacity: The country increased its testing capacity, incorporating both PCR and rapid antigen tests. This expansion facilitated broader testing access for the general population, including asymptomatic individuals, and supported the detection of new variants.
Revised Entry Requirements: In May 2021, the Czech Republic updated its entry protocols. Travelers were required to present a negative antigen test taken within 24 hours or a PCR test taken within 72 hours before arrival. Additionally, certain categories of travelers had to undergo further testing within five days after entering the country. Masarykova univerzita
Increased Testing Rates: By September 2021, daily testing numbers had risen significantly, with over 30,000 PCR tests and nearly 50,000 antigen tests conducted on a single day. This increase reflected the country's efforts to monitor and control the spread of the virus effectively. Expats.cz
These measures were part of a comprehensive strategy to enhance early detection, monitor the spread of new variants, and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 across the Czech Republic.
Professor Jeffrey Morris attempts to explain why there was no drop in the CFR
His arguments changed as I countered each one. They include:
I tried to interpret vaccine effects based on population level CFR instead of vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts
Falsely tried to claim changes in testing practices over time don’t affect CFR.
“You ignore all kinds of things. the fact that rollouts happened throughout 2021 not instantaneous to all on January 1st. Only 43% were fully vaccinated even by mid summer”
“You also ignore the fact that infection rate in vaccinated was MUCH lower in vaccinated — 85-90% lower in first 2 months (and remember people were getting their doses throughout 2021 not all in January) and still 53-65% after 7-8m which is late 2021 for early vaccinated and into 2022 for others. Of course when high % of infected are unvaccinated the population CFR won’t change much Like I said you can’t ignore infection rate and estimate vaccine effects looking at CFR alone.”
For 1: I don’t use the cohorts because they are confounded. The vaccinated and unvaccinated had vastly different health conditions making the results hard to interpret (e.g., a 3X higher mortality difference for the same age). While you could do such an analysis, it would be much harder to do accurately because of this. He’s also deflecting from answering my question.
For 2: Every single testing practice change in the Czech Republic was to increase the rate of tests which per Morris’s quote, would have lowered the CFR if anything.
For 3: I pointed out that the rollouts happened by age and that by week 9, 50% of those born in 1930-1939 were vaccinated. Yet, there was no drop in their CFR.
You can’t argue that they weren’t getting cases either because I showed above that when I compared those shot in 1940 vs. 1950 (6 weeks apart), their cases fell at exactly the same time. If the vaccine dropped cases, we would have seen the 1940’s case curve lead the 1950’s case curve.
Also, by May 1, over 20% of the entire population had at least 1 shot with the elderly prioritized. Yet there was no impact at all on lowering the CFR by even a little bit! There should be a disproportionate impact due to the age skew so we should have seen something and we saw nothing
For 4: He says there is a 90% drop in infections in the elderly so the elderly vaccinated wouldn’t impact the elderly CFR since most wouldn’t be cases anymore.
We showed that the drop in cases is bullshit with the 1940 vs. 1950 where we didn’t see any drop at all. So that doesn’t explain the lack of a CFR drop. Also, we should above that there was no discontinuity in cumulative cases. We’d expect a slope change when they started to roll out the vaccines and saw nothing.
Furthermore, now that we know the cases didn’t drop, since the elderly are 20% of the full population, we’d have expected a drop in the population CFR since such a change should be detectable. But the population CFR went up post rollout.
Bottom line: all the data is consistent with the “no effect” hypothesis.
AI validation (6 different sessions)
To validate all of the above, I engaged in 5 different AI sessions starting from scratch. In each session, the AI said I was full of shit. By the end of every discussion, it agreed I was correct.
ChatGPT discussion #3 (6 objections this time)
And of course if it didn’t work under the ideal conditions of alpha, it’s unlikely to have worked for later variants:
In this session, I pointed out that all this data in the article is consistent with “no benefit” and asked if there was any similar publicly available data I missed showing the opposite. There was not.
And it agreed the Czech data was dispositive on the point that vaccines didn’t reduce cases during alpha:
The false explanations I’ve heard
The CFR of the unvaccinated went up during alpha which counterbalanced the 90% drop in the vaccinated. There is no mechanism of action that can explain how the CFR for the unvaccinated dynamically goes up in a way to EXACTLY NULLIFY the rollout schedule of the COVID vaccine to elderly population in every 5 year age group (which rolled out at different times).
CFR depends on testing volume, so CFR might remain flat if IFR goes down but testing volume also goes down. The Czech data doesn’t depend on testing volume because if you found a case, they tracked the death associated with the case. So it is invariant to testing volume.
The CFR went down in Jan-March according to the US Surveillance data. It sure did! But did you also notice that it went down in all age groups at the same time?The reason is that the US had different variants than the Czech Republic and the US didn’t get to 50% alpha (a less lethal variant than the previous variant) until the end of March. This is also why the drop started before the shot even rolled out. The sign of big trouble is that after the drop was over at the end of March, the CFR went up the next month. If the vaccines worked it should have kept going down.
Variant info from the CDC. Click the image to go to the source. See how in the US, alpha wasn’t majority until the end of March? This is why the CFR falls until March, then starts rising when the roll out the shots, a clear sign that the vaccines aren’t working since Delta had a lower CFR.
Combine this “no death benefit” with the increase in non-COVID ACM and you get a net harm of the death of over 500,000 Americans
We were conned into believing there was a benefit. Hundreds of scientific papers claimed miraculous benefits. This data shows they were all wrong. This data is over multiple countries and they are all screaming: “the population CFR didn’t drop after the shots were rolled to the elderly.”
In the meantime, 500,000 or more Americans who were killed by the COVID vaccine.
No benefit, all risk. The US government killed over 500,000 Americans.
If you like my work…
Please consider becoming a paid subscriber for just $5/month.
Summary
Once you see it, it is ridiculously easy to show anyone with an open mind, compelling evidence that the COVID vaccines provided no mortality benefit whatsoever in just one publicly accessible plot (at the top of this article).
The other plots show that there were no other viable explanations for this.
It’s obvious that the shots should be taken off the market because:
they provide no mortality benefit which was the whole rationale for doing them in the first place.
it is a violation of medical ethics to give any vaccine which increases your all-cause mortality (which was proven in the Levi study).
The hard part is finding people with an open mind.
Trump is illiterate about science.
The Warp tactics were led by Peter Marks and his boss Fauci.
In the spring of 2021, there were abnormal deaths for a vaccinator.
It was Biden and his medical staff who acquiesced this.
Biden continued to watch silently until 2024.
Biden's ruthlessness is terrible.
Steve Kirsch— THANK YOU.