145 Comments
User's avatar
Morris, Jeffrey's avatar

What do you think of this hypothetical, Steve?

Hypothetically, assume that:

1. 80% of the population was vaccinated, and they were vaccinated all at once on 1/1/2021

2. Vaccines prevented 90% of all covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths

3. This protection didn't wane at all for 6m.

4. The infection rate among unvaccinated and death rate per unvaccinated infection (i.e. unvaccinated CFR) remained constant throughout that 6m period.

5. Conditional on the infections that occurred (at full 100% population infection rate for unvaccinated, and at 10% population infection rate for vaccinated representing the 10% breakthrough infections), the CFRs were identical between the vaccinated and unvaccinated during this time period.

Note that these conditions together would imply the CFR remained constant over time.

Would that indicate a 90% VE, or 0% VE?

In this hypothetical scenario, would you claim the vaccine is "like a placebo" and "didn't do anything" because the CFR doesn't decrease with the vaccination?

Jeffrey Morris's avatar

What do you think of this hypothetical, Steve?

Hypothetically, assume that:

1. Vaccines prevented 90% of all covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths

2. Everyone was vaccinated all at once, and this protection didn't wane at all for 6m.

3. Also assume infection rate and death rate per infection remained constant throughout that 6m period.

4. Conditional on the infections that occurred (at full 100% population infection rate for unvaccinated, and at 10% population infection rate for vaccinated representing the 10% breakthrough infections), the CFRs were identical between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

Note that these conditions together would imply the CFR remained constant over time.

Would that indicate a 90% VE, or 0% VE?

In this hypothetical scenario, would you claim the vaccine is "like a placebo" and "didn't do anything" because the CFR doesn't decrease with the vaccination?

Let me know, Steve...

Steve Kirsch's avatar

You should be aware that there are two different definitions of VE of death that are used. So it’s a trick question.

If you use the VE of death that depends only on the CFR, then VE of death would equal zero because the CFR is the same

If you use the other definition of the VE of death, then it would be 90%

Morris, Jeffrey's avatar

Which shows the VE definition based on CFR is not valid, since under my scenario the vaccines directly reduced risk of Covid death by 90%.

It is not a trick question — it is a demonstration of why one cannot define VE from CFR alone

Joy N.'s avatar

Thanks for the info..

🙏🙏

The Bible prophesied 7-year Tribulation is at humanity's doorstep & the time to escape is very short. To read more, pls visit https://bibleprophecyinaction.blogspot.com/

weedom1's avatar

Bet you pulled many people off of the jab train, and saved more by getting them to refuse boosters. A great humanitarian service.

I began recommending against Covid jabs based on risk vs benefit in Spring of 2021, and finally left healthcare in Summer 2022. (I had a religious jab exemption.) Losing hope that government controlled healthcare systems would let go of “worst practices” is what caused me to leave .

Steve Markus's avatar

steve, I have mentioned you in today's The Covid Planet where I note that Grok has an answer to my question, where he chastises Steve Kirsch for claiming he was right about Ladapo and defends itself well. We need to form our own peer-reviewed journal. Big Pharma owns them all!

Steve Kirsch's avatar

Grok admitted I was right. How quickly it forgets it reasoning!

If you post the link to the discussion, I can continue where you left off.

Eleftherios Gkioulekas's avatar

The thing that mystifies me: why did the CFR decrease during delta, knowing that it required more aggressive treatment? (higher dosage of ivermectin or using ivermectin and hcq together).

Steve Kirsch's avatar

because it killed fewer people. It just killed them more quickly. But it killed fewer cases.

Bennet Cecil, M.D.'s avatar

Click on the chart, “Case fatality rate of COVID-19”. On the left panel choose “world” to get the full data set. Moove the sliders, below to widen the chart from January 27, 2020 to January 27, 2025. World case fatality rate peaked in April 2020 at 7.96%. By the time that the lethal injections were approved on December 11, 2020 the case fatality rate had already fallen to 2.4%. The jabs did not reduce the case fatality rate, and your snapshot of the January 21 to June 21 data confirms it.

The COVID graph is typical for any epidemic with a sharp exponential rise in cases and deaths, followed by a slower exponential fall in cases and deaths. William Farr published it in 1840. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farr's_laws

Drop Stix's avatar

Sorry if this has been asked or answered but why did the CFR in USA increase after March?

Reduced testing?

Rolled out more payments for covid deaths?

Didn't reach vulnerable oldies until after March?

Something else?

Steve Kirsch's avatar

probably because the vaccines made the CFR worse would be my guess.

Drop Stix's avatar

Cheers Steve. Sadly, that makes sense.

macDuff's avatar

where can I read about how anyone determined the existence of different variants? I wasn't aware that anybody had ever isolated any "pathogenic virus" particles.

Steve Kirsch's avatar

CDC has variants and so does our world and data

macDuff's avatar

so the CDC is going to show me this information? You could have furnished a link, no?

So please explain to me how you know that Stefan Lanka doesn't know what he's talking about? But you know better because a gov't agency says so? I guess that means that man walked on the moon in 1969 and that arab tourists brought down the twin towers while leaving a richter signature 100 times too light? surely an atom bomb exists too, we'll just take their word for why nature would behave so differently from usual and continue to have lots of just right collisions between particles which fly radially away from each other as soon as the steel case breaks. We already saw that you didn't catch on quickly enough to not get "vaccinated", but you're going to tell everybody else who did what's real?

Steve Kirsch's avatar

the link is in the article on the image.

macDuff's avatar

in your place, I'd have just copied that link and pasted it. You're sending me on a mission instead of that. I'm not going to bother. I know you've been fooled. I won't waste my time. If you want to paste the link here, I'll read it.

Time For Actions's avatar

yo, macDuff... chill out. Steve Kirsch is doing a lot of good, and has admitted many times and was honest about how he woke up late..

You are fighting against the wrong people. Kirsch is on our side.

Go complain to Congress. or to the CDC or to the NIH, or to the American physicians associations... or to the hospitals.

There is a lot of blame to go around. Kirsch is not one of them.

I am grateful for the evidence based and well written information Kirsch provides.

Of course you are awake about 9/11 and the fake moon walks. again... go tell that to Congress. or your state reps.. or political parties. or even try to say that at a county or school board meeting... see what happens..

macDuff's avatar

it doesn’t seem helpful to me to continue spewing that pathogenic virus particles exist when the theory has zero proof and even the guy who made it famous recanted on his death bed. Louis Pasteur. Show me any proper science showing pathogenic virus particles exist. Tell me how you know that Stefan Lanka is wrong and Steve Kirsch is right.

Time For Actions's avatar

a lot of people got very sick.. something existed.

macDuff's avatar

placebo effect and noxious medical practice worsened by the Rothschild/Rockefeller gang directing some of your fake taxpayer "money" toward killing your fellow brainwashed "citizens".

macDuff's avatar

he was late to wake up and admits it. But now he's saying that there are plenty of varieties of "pathogenic virus" identified when in fact there is zero real evidence of that, it's just crap spewed by liars from the fascist regime of billionaires owning the government and profiting by making people believe this sort of tripe. Unfortunately, most of the good he might do is wiped out by this desire of his to believe in the fantasies they are propagating. He's a guy with a couple of bucks who's spreading their lies for them because he still hasn't gotten over his desire to believe that the people running the show aren't pathological liars when they are. That makes him a tool of controlled opposition and removes the value you want to see in him. Let's see either one of you show me why Stephan Lanka is mistaken. Does Kirsch get to out vote Lanka because he has his couple of bucks? Let's try to stick with logic here. Show me the fallacies in Lanka's reasoning and explain to me logically why Kirsch is right to beliee the very people who are doing their best to make our lives useless and empty.

Chris Akin's avatar

Boy, the media must be salivating to declare OWS a complete failure... but they're in too deep themselves. They're made men, in other words, and if they want to go public with the truth about the jab, they'll need to go into the witness protection program. In retrospect, it was out of character for them to promote a Trump initiative, but they did their best to elevate Fauci and diminish Trump. It was an inside job, driven by profit and the acquisition of power, a "never let a crisis go to waste" opportunity, and first and foremost a military operation: Trump was simply hoodwinked into promoting it. The Deep State waited until they stole the election of course to make the jab available. So they withheld as much as they could from Trump. The mainstream media isn't dumb: they know if you get in the way of these people, a school bus going 90 mph will be waiting for you. Ask Virginia Giuffre.

Time For Actions's avatar

really simple explanation.

The media is completely controlled by Pharma... didn't you see the ads ?

has little to do with trump.

Media was all-in to Pharma long ago.. no matter who was in office.

All those Pharma ads are not so people can "go ask you doctor if bioweapon is right for you"

It's all about a way to money laundry control over the media and call it "ads"

Linda M Harris's avatar

I NEED to get help from Kennedy to get REAL MEDICAL HELP for my 52 yr old daughter who have severe side effects from getting the 2 Moderna covid shots in 2021... Her whole body is slowly DYING inside and out and she has severe medical problems from these shots. We cannot get ANY help with this as 3 hospitals and 5 dr's have NOT helped her with all this pain and suffering she has been going though ! Hopefully this message will get to SOMEONE who would be able to help her.

Masaki Fujii's avatar

https://imahealth.org/

FRONT LINE COVID-19 CRITICAL CARE ALLIANCE

If you search for it, you will be able to find it.

Gabriella's avatar

So sorry to hear of your daughter’s suffering.

I don’t know that Kennedy will or can help soon enough if he even could.

Best thing would be to contact people like Dr. Henry Ealy, Dr. Pierre Kory, or any other Health Freedom Doctor that has experience in treating those that are shot injured.

weedom1's avatar

You've been basically correct, and we have enough agreement to have caused me to leave health care).

I believe the mRNA jab harm more than obliterates efficacy.

Steve Kirsch's avatar

thanks! I saved a life!

Minister Emoven's avatar

I spoke with a UK carer of old folk homes and asked what they did when an old person was tested positive (by too many cycles and not a decent test anyhow). I was told that doctors would not attend due to Covid and that the oldie would be isolated in their room and given NIL-BY-MOUTH... no water, no food, no treatment... i told them that this was murder and that water should be given as a fast for a few days would likely cure the oldie anyhow... no idea whether they listened or acted as only met them the once.... this is why old people were not allowed visitors, they were being murdered without any need for Midazolam... however, any on respirators were given combinations of morphine and midazolam, which if you go check the medical advice, claims that both are respiration suppression so giving the two together would require constant monitoring of the patient as it was very likely to stop them breathing altogether... BOTH treatments are likely to make a breathing problem worse... and together to kill off people... there was a guy protesting about his mother's death that way and i think he has ended up dead too, he was making a lot of public attention so maybe this wasn't natural either... People were stopped from visiting old folk because they would have found out that they were being starved to death... a way to save pension payouts? So, in a way, the fact that death rate stayed similar even after vaccine either means they stopped starving old folk to death and instead killed them with the vax... or they simply carried on with both... death rates since the vax was introduced have actually risen a lot in the first year of it being released, if not longer... more younger folk dead when they had little risk from covid... and still it is being given to children in the UK... this whole thing should have been stopped in the first month after they realised around 254 people died already from the vax... obviously, that is what was always for, else deaths from administration usually halt even vaccines if they go over 100... to me it's all about depopulation and in the UK, killing off as many old folk as possible...

srbboo's avatar

Is Steve really blaming Donald Trump for the Covid debacle from the start? Trump is not and never pretended to be a scientist, doctor, or mind reader. It's obvious to this casual observer that China colluded with Fauci and the Demoncrats to derail Trump with a worldwide pandemic by deliberately releasing the illegally funded GOF bat virus. And then made massive profit off it by bringing forward a "vaccine" that had been in the freezer for years, just waiting for the right opportunity to make millionaires out of criminals. The entire world could turn on the USA and sue us into the ground for what Fauci and his criminal gang did.

macDuff's avatar

I don't think I've ever seen a comment with more ingrained false beliefs than yours.

Freida's avatar

The main stream media cannot go after Trump for the Covid jab because they are still controlled by big pharma. It’s profit over principle.

David A's avatar

"This is your chance to call Trump out on this and blame him for the 500,000 or more Americans who were killed by the vaccine he created"

Wow, just wow. President Trump cut funding to WHO, the NIH, and other government three letter agencies involved, and never supported forced vaccines or the Federal mandates. His economic policies were working and working well. China was being dragged back to the table, Mexico was in cooperation, India and SE Asia was on board, parts of Europe were on board his policy of "rational nationalism" and the "rule the world" globalists were in full retreat desperation mode. President Trump was reported to be initially very against the lockdowns.

He neither has any medical degree or expertise, or ANY claim to such expertise. He initially tried to stop all travel from China, and was crucified in the press. He tried to encourage prophylactic research and use, and was crucified by the press 24-7. For him to go against the entire medical industry, and the bought press would have been political suicide. It was imperative to get the economy moving again and stop the lockdowns that were and did great economic harm. Whatever the true story of the COVID release to the world, the effect was what the globalists desired most, to stop Trump!

No, credit for COVID and the vaccines, and the subsequent deaths, rightly belongs with the Globalist creators of COVID and the death shots, and the mandates, and the shutting down of very effective prophylactic treatments.

The only difference at the time between Trump and any other President, was he forced the lockdowns to end sooner than they wanted.

So President Trump term two has hired Bobby Kennedy, and many other enemies of the deep state. Research critical of the vaccines is ongoing and much that was hidden is being revealed. On the legal front the mandates are getting crushed, and this is snowballing. Fauci is disgraced and his role ever more revealed.

Poorly done Steve, poorly done.

macDuff's avatar

the list of things you believe with no valid proof is long. You can't conjugate the verb "to be".

David A's avatar

The list of your specific objections and why the assertions are wrong is exceedingly short.

macDuff's avatar

ok. Start with any valid experiment proving that any "pathogenic virus" exists.

If you can't find one, please tell me why you believe they exist. Why you believe in this germ theory that even this idiot Louis Pasteur figured out was wrong on his deathbed.

David A's avatar

I know some people want to believe viruses are not real. It would be comforting. I applaud everyone who questions assumptions, but not those who don’t want to learn any genetics or virology. There are billion observations that can’t be explained with the hypothesis that viruses don’t exist. I just keep pointing at the data. Isn’t that what science is?

Viruses have been isolated genetically, antigenically, with electron microscopes, and in functional plaque assays millions of times. The requirement that someone must also isolate them molecularly is an anachronistic, semantic, expensive and irrelevant point.

We don’t have to isolate a box of pure computer virus to know that computer viruses exist.

We can only make copies of viruses by putting them in cells which use all the same chemical elements and much of the same coding and proteins. Separating out the viruses from 100,000 similar chemicals to get purity is possible but expensive and scientifically pointless.

We isolate them with plaque assays, antibody tests, electron micrographs, PCR analysis, contact tracing, symptoms, blood tests for D-Dimer, Cytokines, blood oxy levels, etc etc etc. We do binding tests on various subparts of the virus with ACE2 TMPRSS2 and nuclear transport proteins, etc etc etc. See Nextstrain to get some idea of how much data they can’t explain. (Mouseover and then double click the dots on Nextstrain to see more data).

There’s a billion observations that already fit the hypothesis that viruses are real. The hypothesis that all viruses are fake explains none of them…

https://joannenova.com.au/2022/06/weekend-unthreaded-417/#comment-2561474

https://joannenova.com.au/2022/06/thursday-open-thread-107/#comment-2560722

macDuff's avatar

perhaps you mean well, but that is a big load of pure bullshit. You can believe that if you want, but it absolutely rules you out as being anything resembling a scientist.

Gosh, it's too expensive to do it right, so we'll do it wrong a million times and then we'll pat ourselves on the back back cause we keep on getting it wrong the same way over and over without spending too much money.

45 years of proper experiments in England, never able to demonstrate any contagion.

Sorry, but you're no smarter than Louis Pasteur and though you've been polite up until now, I imagine that's just a show.

EdB's avatar

You missed Steve's taunt.. he wants a public debate and he tossed out that idea as red meat to Trumps detractors. So far they want to hide from any discussion in the main stream media.

David A's avatar

I do not think so. Steve is sincere, Intelligent,and willing to talk, yet as I understand it, he is traditionally very democratic. The amount of venom irrationally hurled at President Trump is more then sufficient without giving heat to it.

WayneBGood's avatar

Steve Kirsch used the fact that he stopped donating to DNC to appear on Fox News. Then he sprang some vaccine facts!

https://rumble.com/v1fk1ml-fox-news-stuns-world-with-unfiltered-truth.html

weedom1's avatar

Really I think Steve Kirsch is pointing out that the dems are so neck deep in this 💩 that they can't call out Trump as they normally would over the least thing, real or imagined.

It's not possible for a real data analyst to be as rabid as the left has gotten these days.

David A's avatar

That is not what he wrote at all. I see endless calls from non democrat steeped in TDS. In a response in this thread Steve doubled down to a degree.

weedom1's avatar

If he had written that, I would have put it in quotes.

But Steve's suggestion for the Dems to call out Trump on the failure of warp speed + the fact that the Dems won't ever do that, points out that the dems are neck deep in COVID 💩.

Clark's avatar

Also, Trump was achieving peace cooperation deals in the Middle East with the Abraham accords. Operation Warp Speed was not Trump's phrase it was from the industry or Fauci or the military component of the vaccine development, I don't recall exactly.