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henjin's avatar

In the ONS data the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR was in fact elevated during the Delta wave that peaked around August 2021 and during the COVID wave in the winter of 2021-2022: https://sars2.net/rootclaim3.html#Comparison_to_English_ONS_data. In the newest edition of the ONS dataset, the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR was about 1.83 in January 2022 but about 1.22 in May 2022, so the ratio dropped a lot after the COVID deaths went down.

The ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR went down over time because the effect of the HVE got weaker over time. In April to May 2021 there were still many people who had been vaccinated recently so they were impacted by the temporal/time-varying HVE.

In the Dutch CBS data the ratio between unvaccinated and vaccinated ASMR is also clearly elevated during the COVID wave in the winter of 2021-2022: https://sars2.net/rootclaim3.html#Comparison_to_Dutch_CBS_data. But the ratio was still higher in May 2021 than the winter of 2021-2022 because the HVE was stronger in May 2021.

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