I just got around to reading your term sheet. I see an Achilles heel: only 3 judges. The problem with that is a completely unresolved question has a whopping 25% chance of winner payout. For illustration, suppose at the beginning of the debate, person P in attendance flipped a coin and hid the result, and the debate question was “Did P flip heads or tails?” You can see that if 3 judges are each required to render their own definitive judgments on this event, there is a 25% chance that they would agree unanimously on what was always an even proposition. If you increase the judges to 6, you’ll reduce the probability of an even proposition being decided as a win down to 3.1%.
Also, what is your definition of “Covid” for purpose of these bets? Originally, Covid was generally defined by public health authorities as being indicative of severe respiratory distress. But the goalposts have moved so far that now common cold symptoms - or even just a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 - is routinely referred to as Covid.
did you want to accept my bet?
Steve,
I just got around to reading your term sheet. I see an Achilles heel: only 3 judges. The problem with that is a completely unresolved question has a whopping 25% chance of winner payout. For illustration, suppose at the beginning of the debate, person P in attendance flipped a coin and hid the result, and the debate question was “Did P flip heads or tails?” You can see that if 3 judges are each required to render their own definitive judgments on this event, there is a 25% chance that they would agree unanimously on what was always an even proposition. If you increase the judges to 6, you’ll reduce the probability of an even proposition being decided as a win down to 3.1%.
Also, what is your definition of “Covid” for purpose of these bets? Originally, Covid was generally defined by public health authorities as being indicative of severe respiratory distress. But the goalposts have moved so far that now common cold symptoms - or even just a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 - is routinely referred to as Covid.
Of course they won't. They all cowards and science flunkies who prefer to anonymously troll away with their New Age bullshit.