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In Brazil it´s evident that a simple model was applied in order to arrive at the "correct" number of covid deaths: EXCESS MORTALITY= COVID DEATHS .
This can be easily verified using the record-level data at opendatasus.saude.gov.b… were covid deaths are identified by the code B342 in the CAUSABAS field. Date of death is the DTOBITO field …
In Brazil it´s evident that a simple model was applied in order to arrive at the "correct" number of covid deaths: EXCESS MORTALITY= COVID DEATHS .
This can be easily verified using the record-level data at https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/dataset/sim were covid deaths are identified by the code B342 in the CAUSABAS field. Date of death is the DTOBITO field in ddmmyyyy format. For a simple expected accumulated mortality function I use the FORECAST function of excel from April 2015 to March 2019 (I ain´t no scientist).
It can also be observed that coincidentally, in January of 2021, the model is then abandoned. By then everybody was pretty much vaxed.