If you use the mortality rate of the general NZ population in 2021-2023 as the baseline, you can get an idea about the mortality rate of unvaccinated people in case the vaccinated people in Barry's dataset are representative of vaccinated people as a whole (after adjusting for age which is the only confounder I'm able to adjust for here). So if the vaccinated people in Barry's dataset get positive age-normalized excess mortality then it suggests that unvaccinated people have negative excess mortality, and vice versa.
When I calculated the baseline using mortality rates in 2017-2019 instead, it actually reduced the excess mortality of vaccinated people from about -4% to about -6%: https://i.ibb.co/vHzH9Z4/ppd-buckets-2021-to-2023-vs-2017-to-2019-baseline.png. That's because NZ had high mortality in 2017 but negative excess deaths in 2021, and there was a decreasing trend in mortality rates within age groups before COVID.
If you use the mortality rate of the general NZ population in 2021-2023 as the baseline, you can get an idea about the mortality rate of unvaccinated people in case the vaccinated people in Barry's dataset are representative of vaccinated people as a whole (after adjusting for age which is the only confounder I'm able to adjust for here). So if the vaccinated people in Barry's dataset get positive age-normalized excess mortality then it suggests that unvaccinated people have negative excess mortality, and vice versa.
When I calculated the baseline using mortality rates in 2017-2019 instead, it actually reduced the excess mortality of vaccinated people from about -4% to about -6%: https://i.ibb.co/vHzH9Z4/ppd-buckets-2021-to-2023-vs-2017-to-2019-baseline.png. That's because NZ had high mortality in 2017 but negative excess deaths in 2021, and there was a decreasing trend in mortality rates within age groups before COVID.