Using a scientific experiment to settle a scientific question: Is virology fraudulent?
Using a scientific experiment to settle a scientific question: Is virology fraudulent?
Jamie Andrews has a protocol where he claims that SARS-CoV-2 can be created de novo by starving a cell line of nutrients. I propose a high stakes experiment to settle the question.
Executive summary
Some people are very confident, and willing to put their money behind their beliefs, that virology is fraudulent and you can find any genomic sequence including SARS-CoV-2 from material which does not already contain those sequences.
Others disagree.
I propose we fund a fair and balanced high-stakes experiment to settle the question where the winners receive all wagers minus expenses.
The survey
This survey suggests that people who think virology is a hoax (Side A) are serious. They are willing to put their money behind their beliefs (something that is rare if you ask a question about vaccine safety).
42 people are willing to wager $100K or more.
That’s over $4.2M!
Is this for real? Let’s find out.
The counterparties
Side A: Believes SARS-CoV-2 genome can be generated de novo just like Jamie Andrews claims to have demonstrated and that the output of standard genetic sequence processes used by virologists will closely match one or more of the reference genomes.
Side B: Believes it is extremely unlikely for this to ever happen.
Proposed scientific methodology
The below proposal is subject to agreement by all parties….
Each side picks a CLIA-accredited lab based in the US. Both labs will be instructed to follow the Jamie Andrews protocol that is described in this video.
Each side can specify their lab use one of 3 methods to verify the genetic sequencing (traditional WGS, Oxford nanopore, or Sanger sequencing). The resulting assembly must match any SARS-CoV-2 genome in GenBank (deposited on or before today) with an E value of 1e-30 which is considered to be a definitive match (a value of 0 means an exact match).
The labs will use industry standard sequencing software which is to be operated using standard protocols by the labs chosen. The reads (the input to the assembly process) will be distributed to all parties by the labs for an extra level of verification.
The labs will write up a report detailing what they did and what the result was.
Both sides can send one observer to each lab to monitor the experiment at that lab.
Proposed structure for the wagers
The funds will be escrowed in a trust account held by a mutually agreeable US law firm in advance of the start of the experiment.
Before any work begins, all bets must be on deposit at the escrow agent.
The maximum wager from any individual participant is $500,000.
Priority will be given to those who are first to deposit their wager.
Wager deposits (in an escrow account in a specified US bank account) will be accumulated over 5 business days.
Participation priority will be given to those who deposit funds early.
So if Side A deposits a total of $1M at the end of the week and Side B deposits $2M, then the first $1M from Side B will be matched up on a 1:1 basis. This incentives people to make their wagers early. Excess funds that cannot be matched 1:1 will be returned to the sender.
All funds will be returned except those funds used for payment of expenses for the labs, lawyers, and judges (if needed)
How the wagers will be distributed
If both labs fail to find the SARS-CoV-2 sequence with an E-value of 1e-30, Side B wins the pot (minus expenses).
If both labs find the SARS-CoV-2 sequence with an E-value of 1e-30, Side A wins.
If it is a mixed decision where one lab finds the sequence and the other lab doesn’t, the wagers, minus expenses, are returned pro-rata to the parties.
The proceeds will be distributed back on a pro-rata basis with the relative size of the wager.
Determination of the results from each lab will be judged by the parties but if they disagree, we will randomly select a judge from JAMS to settle the disbursement question: either A, B, or split decision.
Place your bets: $50K or more
If you are interested in participating in this experiment and placing a wager on either side, please sign up here.
Signing up doesn’t obligate you to participate. It is just an expression of intent.
You can make your decision after a definitive agreement is negotiated between the counterparties and you’ve had time to review the definitive agreement.
Viewing the book
You can view the bets here.
Summary
While this may not be the last word on the topic, with millions of dollars at stake and both sides placing a monitor at each lab to validate the entire process, we hopefully will get a definitive answer that won’t be contested.
Only one person, as of 6/19/24, was willing to wager $50K or more on the "no virus" side. ONE PERSON.
Easily verified? Okay - here's a simple question for you that should be easily verified: WHEN, WHERE, WHY, WHAT and WHO P R O V E D that HIV 1) attacks human cells and 2) causes AIDS? Waiting breathlessly for your response.