He uses a hand-waving argument to try to discredit me. Just one tiny little problem: the actual underlying data shows he's wrong. That's why he never references any actual data.
The whole "I dont evaluate the data" was enough for me. You have to believe the data without question to say something like that and that is not how science is supposed to work. Question everything or you really dont know anything.
UPenn is a mega proponent of mRNA technology and big pharma. Post the numbers on research grants from the NIH that UPenn receives, the amount is not insignificant. Big pharma also donates big money to UPenn, enough to keep Morris on staff for the purpose of handwaving and denying facts. UPenn has much to gain from mRNA technology, continued NIH funding and its ties to Big Pharma (Pfizer).
Thank you for the sane commentary. I do not know if the data for those providers is verified, but I tend to believe it since Steve and his detractors seem to all agree and his detractors would be motivated to find him in error.
I also agree with you that the vast majority of the actually sick could have been easily saved with the use of the criminally suppressed Ivermectin and Hydroxychloriquine. Instead, they were ignored and denied treatment until they were about unable to self-oxygenate, at which point they were killed with Remdesevir, powerful sedation, and ventilation administered by the profit seeking, negligent hospital systems who were paid thousands in bonuses by our criminal government to follow those known deadly protocols and list someone as Covid positive, all in the name of increasing the body count for the purpose of raising the Covid hysteria to push more people into getting jabbed. Our "heroic" doctors mostly stood by silent, afraid to say a word for fear of losing their licenses and hospital privileges. After what I've seen, I think I'd shoot myself before going into a hospital for anything worse than a bad cut.
It happened all over the world - the exact same patterns.
4 large waves - at the beginning of the scamdemic via morphine, remdisivir and midazolam and post every single large stab implementation. You can see this data in every single country. I built an app to analyse the UK Rona data and had overwhelming proof of murder by May 2020. You know this by looking at death rates and as Steve as done, patterns in the source data. No country was exempt from this general holocaust.
Quacks with with their bullshit degrees like Morris benefitted. They are the establishment. They don't care about murders. They are sick twisted little fascists. I am sure Morris was bought off sitting on his various Rona committees.
Spot on, "After what I've seen, I think I'd shoot myself before going into a hospital for anything worse than a bad cut."
If you want to die - enter a hospital. And Morris will tell you that your murder was just a quackcidence.
I'm completely anti Covid vaxx. And pretty much anti any vaxx for that matter the more I learn. I'm an engineer, so I try to be scrupulously objective since my paycheck depends on it. I haven't seen you around these parts so maybe you are new to this substack? I have defended Steve many times here and would defend you too if the facts warrant. Although I respect, admire him, and am a paying member of VSRF, I will say Steve does have a tendency to get a little overheated sometimes and I think it may be the case here. I think this other guy may be right about this one point (that it isn't fair to compare the "Covid deaths" at this facility to the average assisted living facility) since this is place apparently is devoted to "death row" patients. If so, Steve should just admit it and move on instead of demeaning his argument as "hand waving." Sorry, but I'm not a super tribal person who will stand by you even if you are wrong. Maybe that's why I'm not married anymore.
re: "since this is place apparently is devoted to "death row" patients."
I commented on that in detail, below, in a deeply nested comment rooted at "Has the alarming data for providers 396122 and 315506 been verified?"
Briefly, by November 2020 there was published confirmation that Ivermectin was effective for very sick Covid patients [Redondo]. If the facilities in question were indeed death houses, most of these people could have recovered and walked away.
I hope the truth is that the data for these facilities is simply incorrect. Otherwise, we are trying to determine the cause of huge unnecessary death., selecting from among a) a toxic product and b) bad treatment protocols.
Folks. Please sign this for Jordan Peterson! This is Communist ReEducation Tyranny!!!
An online petition has been organized calling on the Ontario College of Psychologists to rescind their unreasonable, undemocratic, and punitive decision to sentence Dr. Jordan Peterson to mandatory re-education.
Stabs, morphine, midazolam, pillow over the face - Do Not Resuscitate....follow the money. I am betting that not only were the stabs+morphine the murder weapons, but the quacks and tik tokkers were paid to murder. Every Rona death was murder for money.
Has the alarming data for providers 396122 and 315506 been verified? If they are wrong due to data entry errors, that would explain the peculiar square wave, tall height, brief duration pulse in the data set. Such are unlikely in life statistics.
If the data is indeed valid, then this is alarming and we want to know the cause. This could be caused by food poisoning, axe murders, planned death or therapy. If valid, these data demand investigation.
In the tweet that Kirsch tried to pillory, I explained that facility #396122, Fox Subacute in Mechanicsburg, PA, is a unique nursing home facility that specializes in post acute respiratory care, with "Fox Subacute serves patients dependent on life-sustaining ventilators for short and long-term care services" -- one of the few centers focusing on ventilator care. It is not a long-term residential community with relatively healthy seniors, but a center focusing on post-acute respiratory care with beds with ventilators for short and long term care.
Let's look at what we see in the data for this respiratory/ventilator center.
1. They have 56 beds.
2. They have 22 resident deaths recorded for various weeks, 1/17, 2/7, 2/14, 2/28, 3/14, 3/21 in 2001.
3. Their filled beds don't change much from week to week even after these weeks suggesting they quickly replaced the dying patients with more patients.
4. Pennsylvania had by far its worst covid surge of the entire pandemic spanning from early November to late March that led to the worst covid hospitalization and death rate of the pandemic -- especially in the >70yr old population.
So, what seems more likely for this respiratory care center with ventilator beds?
1. Given the huge surge that overwhelmed PA hospitals more than any other and produced the greatest covid hospitalization and death rates at that time, that patients on ventilators were transferred to this nursing home where many died (unsurprising given their poor prognosis at that point), and then after they died there were plenty of other ventilated patients released from hospitals to take their place (especially given the shortage of nursing facilities in the region specializing in ventilator/respiratory care as documented by this article describing another Fox Subacute site in suburbs of Philadelphia that closed -- https://www.phca.org/news/press-releases/bucks-county-specialized-respiratory-care-facility-officially-closes/)
OR
2. This center decided to vaccinate their post-acute respiratory care residents, many on ventilators, and the vaccine killed them.
Which seems more likely? I suppose there could be an error but these data were supposedly checked for errors, and scenario #1 is very plausible given what was going on locally at the time and the specialized nature of this center.
I get $0 from any pharma company and $0 for any of this covid work.
Not sure your definition of a "shill" but I guarantee you it doesn't fit me (in fact all this time I spend on covid stuff is on the side of my main job so if anything it threatens my livelihood and takes away from my ability to earn extra $).
And I guarantee you if there was anything akin to mass murder going on, I'd be speaking up. If the claims made by Steve and others checked out to scrutiny, I'd be speaking out on them as well.
People like Steve are making all kinds of demonstrably false claims to get you worked up in a lather. A careful evaluation of their claims, analytical methods and data reveal all kinds of epidemiological and logical fallacies. The claims fall apart when critically evaluated, especially when considered in light of all available data and evidence (with cherry picking/confirmation bias blocking out the vast contradicting evidence and amplification of any supporting information, often distorted) being one of the primary tactics.
It seems fishy to me that 22 deaths keeps showing up, the exact same number, week after week. Natural epidemics don't usually hit the same number repeatedly.
And that's why I asked if anyone has verified the raw data. It would be a shame to do a lot of work to speculate hypotheses to explain the raw data if the data are simply wrong.
I agree that is quite strange and could possibly be an error.
But there could be some other explanation, e.g. if they have a specific ward with 22 beds that are reserved for the most advanced ventilated patients or is quarantined for those who might be infectious -- in which case it might effectively be a hospice for dying covid patients on ventilators.
But it is hard to know for sure without checking with the facility (if they are willing to talk about such things)
But honestly if you look at these data closely you see a lot of centers with very strange data - many with short periods of time with incredibly high numbers of deaths but with no reduction in occupied beds. And many of them are not during the winter 2020-21 period (that had the most massive covid/death surge of the pandemic in these data sets, and that also overlaps with time of vaccine rollouts). Many others appear in 2020 during times of local surges.
It is possible that some of these are wrong -- but also quite possible these are individuals sent to the nursing home after hospital release which we knew went on a lot early in 2020.
And we know if you look at the websites for many of these centers that a substantial proportion of their beds (all of them in some cases) are used for rehabbing post-acute patients released from the hospital -- for which of course the death/infection/admission patterns will differ from (relatively) healthy long-term residents in assisted living etc.
This was the main point I was trying to make to Steve in my tweets but he is not interested in thinking about how the dynamic of short term post-acute patients in nursing homes would be reflected differently in these data than long-term residents.
He says this in his article: "Losing 77% to 83% of your average occupancy in a month is hugely problematic. The average nursing home in the US has around a 40% turnover per year which is just 3.3% per month. So those rates are “off-the-charts.” They are over 23X higher than the average nursing home." So, I think he's comparing to to the average nursing home in the US not each home's history.
This is not an isolated event. All over the G20 the same happened in different homes and facilities. In the UK 30 K were murdered within 3 months, spring 2020, mapped to a rollout of 2 mn shots of midazolam. All 30 K ascribed to Rona. Every stab program - the same acceleration in death rates.
Open your eyes to the murders.
If the average death rate years, months previous to the stab rollouts is 55 x less than what occurs post stab, yeah data boy, there is a problem.
I plot Steve's "IFR" over time and show how badly he cherry picked the post-vaccination period to a short 3 month time period (1/3/21-4/4/21) to make his narrative that it had increased after vaccination appear true.
If you look at the entire post vaccination period in these data including 4/4/21-8/6/23, you see his "IFR" value quickly drops from his cherry picked period and by mid-2022 drops to be 10x lower for the duration of the period.
I plot the total cases, covid deaths, and all cause deaths over time from these data, and show how Steve did this -- by cherry picking a period with VERY low case and covid death counts (in fact lowest of the entire pandemic) for which IFR doesn't mean much. You can see that once cases come up again, the covid/all-cause deaths remain very low, and the post-vaccination nursing home resident had DRAMATICALLY lower IFR than pre-vaccination.
You can also see that the total covid cases/deaths and total deaths decreased immediately after vaccination and remained lower in the 2.5yrs since that time than any time pre-vaccination.
That's Steve's choice in his analysis if you look at his post.
He uses 5/31/00-1/3/21 as the "pre-vaccination period" in his analysis (leaving off the first week of data 5/24/00 that has huge covid deaths).
Then he uses 1/3/21-4/4/21 as the "post-vaccination period", and then just ignores 4/4/21-8/6/23 (which incidentally shows much lower covid and all cause deaths and "IFR" than any other time pre-vaccine).
This is the point I am making here -- look at the plots in my tweets above (sadly I can't attach a graph here).
Again, thanks for your reply. Responding (with too much) ...
1. re: "first week of data 5/24/00 that has huge covid deaths".
The CMS methodology specifically states that the submittals for 5/24/00 may, but need not, include data from as early as 1/1/2020. And so in some cases we see a one week tally on that date, and in other cases see quite large tallies covering unstated breadth. As analysts, we are obliged to follow CMS guidance to not use the 5/24/00 in time sequenced graphs.
2. I'm glad to know the inception date used for the analysis. The CMS data is unhelpful on inception, generally expressing first evidence of vaccination around May 2021, depending on the provider, and expressed as a fully vaxxed condition. I still wonder if the first appearance of fully vaxxed data points comes with the first time CMS asked for those specifically. I know of nursing home staff who were fully vaxxed in January 2021.
3. I would expect that, in the real world, different facilities would begin these therapies at different times. As said, CMS does include data about this within the data set we are discussing. It sure would be helpfull if they did.
4. One way of aggregating the time series is to align them by calendar date. This is the easiest thing to do. Another option is to align them by calendar date facility inception date. With that second approach, any therapy consequence will be most sharply defined on a graph, and otherwise any trend discontinuity will be "fuzzed out".
5. re: the post vaccination period. There are lots of ways to do this. If the period is too broad, the Covid related signals become irrelevant as other killers emerge (kangaroo pox?). Too short, and you risk missing the edge of any cliff. What we are looking for is a change of presentation after inception of vaccination, or after accumulation of vaccination. For us, change of presentation appears as a discontinuity in the slope of an incidence graph. If the vaccines help, death rates fall obviously, if they hurt, they rise, and if they do nothing, then the slope won;t change.
6. We aren't dealing with single variables. Some of the patients got more shots than others. Some patients declined the vaccine. We must allow for the possibility that people's immune response might have developed differently according to whether they were inoculated or not. We should be alert to the possibility that subject populations became more robust over time, if the inoculated developed a stronger immunity, or if part of the population died out preferentially (ugh, horrible word) - is this called "survivor bias"? The data set unfortunately does not give us clarity on this because the submittals do not segregate control from treated. My point is that there is more than one hypothesis for why death counts would fall over time post vaccination.
a very early idea concerning efficiency of vaccination, especially by counting the deadly outcome, is that there is none , if HCE & Survivor bias is taken into account ! ...at least none positive
The most vulnerable ones ar not vaccinated due to HC specification.
the (next) most vulnerable (who got vaccinated) die often soon after vax dose, just before that certain time point, from where on efficiency is calculated.
(leading to SURVIVOR BIAS)
so we have to look on data strictly by safety orientated criterias, not by efficiency ones.
UK statistic office published nice data in a highly regular way every two month till around midth of 2022.
these showed increased death rates till around week 7-9 after last dose ,maximum week 5. Both for ALL age groups !!
The HCE could hardly overwhelm just the first week; death count of week 2 after vax dose reached already nearly later average numbers.
I bed them to show data counting deaths after each dose separately to gain more clarity.
They refused,instead they stopped next report ,announced delay once, announced twice, and more than half year later they reported even less data!!
I tell this, because (almost only? ) data like this shows great robustness against differences of compared cohorts and their variety over time.
But if 90 yr old Granny gets the fake PCR test and dies - than Rona is counted. Another paid event.
But if Granny is stabbed up and dies - it is okay, she was old and other causal factors are at work (and it wasn't even magic day 21 either, ergo unstabbinated!)
The covid attribution on the deaths is clearly inaccurate in many cases in this data base. Check the huge surge of deaths at the beginning dates in March 24, 2000 in many places where it is clearly due to the massive covid surge but for some centers they don't list them as covid deaths, and others they did.
This is one of the reasons I told Steve that taking the ratio of recorded covid deaths to recorded covid cases from this database is not a valid estimate of infection fatality rate.
Well, that didn’t take long to get blocked off his Twitter. I guess when you remind people that trusting science is detrimental to one’s health including his, you get blocked.
Hello dear Steve Kirsch, i couldnt spend much time right now,but due to some experience by reading data I try to ask you some questions, immediately coming up by watching xls. data from 315506.
These data seems not plausibel to me.
First:
ACM. there ar 7 figures IN a ROW only showing 20 o 21 , where before and after stands 3 and 0 ,and over all there ist no other figure >9 . this would be to much for me to take this figures for real.
Please check it by other hard fact information. I guess this is not that special facility where you did so, right?
Second:
When C-deaths occured in Dez20, the occupancy suddenly drops down from 90 to less than 80.
this is in line with what is expected to happen.
Completly different is what we see for Jan-March,when the huge mortality is shown.
Synchronically the figures for occupancy even increases!?
I keep no explanation in mind other than the high ACM-figures ar mistakes.
During these weeks when 20 people die, note that their total occupied bed doesn't decrease but goes up, so they are gaining >20 patients per week.
This facility is in Sewell, NJ, which is a suburb of Philadelphia (where I live), has a massive surge of covid hospitalizations from November, 2020 through February, 2021. It is plausible that they had large numbers of cardiac/respiratory patients released into this facility after being hospitalized by COVID-19 during this time, and a number of them died during this period.
Steve can call them and check if he wants, but that is at least a plausible explanation, while vaccine deaths are not.
If these were long term residents dropping dead from vaccination (which actually started in December 2020, not late January 2021), then why would their total number of filled beds not decrease when 20 of these people were dying every week, but actually increase?
Given we KNOW this facility as described on their website does this type of rehabilitative care, the only explanation (beyond data error) is that rehabilitative patients were being enrolled rapidly in the center during this time.
Steve, excellent analysis and very well explained with REAL data. A fool could see the correlations. The ACM for Jan-March 2021 is stunning to say the least. Clearly, Professor Morris exemplifies this cute little game of trust me because I have academic credentials and believe me because my OPINION counts more than real data because I'm an expert. Steve would destroy this guy in an open debate but of course they all hide behind their computer spreading lies and misinformation.
The whole "I dont evaluate the data" was enough for me. You have to believe the data without question to say something like that and that is not how science is supposed to work. Question everything or you really dont know anything.
UPenn is a mega proponent of mRNA technology and big pharma. Post the numbers on research grants from the NIH that UPenn receives, the amount is not insignificant. Big pharma also donates big money to UPenn, enough to keep Morris on staff for the purpose of handwaving and denying facts. UPenn has much to gain from mRNA technology, continued NIH funding and its ties to Big Pharma (Pfizer).
"Phase" means "a distinct period or stage in a series of events or a process of change or development."
The word you meant to use is spelled "fazed", to "disturb or disconcert (someone)."
Micheal E Mann, Quack Morris. Same Uni, same corruption. Same stupid.
Remember ClimateGate, hide the decline, let's make up the Climate BS data for the 'powers that be'.
Mann has parlayed that criminality into $1 mn p.a. 'job', making up data.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/climategate/
Morris is from the same culture, same group, same corruption and graft.
Thank you for the sane commentary. I do not know if the data for those providers is verified, but I tend to believe it since Steve and his detractors seem to all agree and his detractors would be motivated to find him in error.
I also agree with you that the vast majority of the actually sick could have been easily saved with the use of the criminally suppressed Ivermectin and Hydroxychloriquine. Instead, they were ignored and denied treatment until they were about unable to self-oxygenate, at which point they were killed with Remdesevir, powerful sedation, and ventilation administered by the profit seeking, negligent hospital systems who were paid thousands in bonuses by our criminal government to follow those known deadly protocols and list someone as Covid positive, all in the name of increasing the body count for the purpose of raising the Covid hysteria to push more people into getting jabbed. Our "heroic" doctors mostly stood by silent, afraid to say a word for fear of losing their licenses and hospital privileges. After what I've seen, I think I'd shoot myself before going into a hospital for anything worse than a bad cut.
It happened all over the world - the exact same patterns.
4 large waves - at the beginning of the scamdemic via morphine, remdisivir and midazolam and post every single large stab implementation. You can see this data in every single country. I built an app to analyse the UK Rona data and had overwhelming proof of murder by May 2020. You know this by looking at death rates and as Steve as done, patterns in the source data. No country was exempt from this general holocaust.
Quacks with with their bullshit degrees like Morris benefitted. They are the establishment. They don't care about murders. They are sick twisted little fascists. I am sure Morris was bought off sitting on his various Rona committees.
Spot on, "After what I've seen, I think I'd shoot myself before going into a hospital for anything worse than a bad cut."
If you want to die - enter a hospital. And Morris will tell you that your murder was just a quackcidence.
I'm completely anti Covid vaxx. And pretty much anti any vaxx for that matter the more I learn. I'm an engineer, so I try to be scrupulously objective since my paycheck depends on it. I haven't seen you around these parts so maybe you are new to this substack? I have defended Steve many times here and would defend you too if the facts warrant. Although I respect, admire him, and am a paying member of VSRF, I will say Steve does have a tendency to get a little overheated sometimes and I think it may be the case here. I think this other guy may be right about this one point (that it isn't fair to compare the "Covid deaths" at this facility to the average assisted living facility) since this is place apparently is devoted to "death row" patients. If so, Steve should just admit it and move on instead of demeaning his argument as "hand waving." Sorry, but I'm not a super tribal person who will stand by you even if you are wrong. Maybe that's why I'm not married anymore.
re: "since this is place apparently is devoted to "death row" patients."
I commented on that in detail, below, in a deeply nested comment rooted at "Has the alarming data for providers 396122 and 315506 been verified?"
Briefly, by November 2020 there was published confirmation that Ivermectin was effective for very sick Covid patients [Redondo]. If the facilities in question were indeed death houses, most of these people could have recovered and walked away.
I hope the truth is that the data for these facilities is simply incorrect. Otherwise, we are trying to determine the cause of huge unnecessary death., selecting from among a) a toxic product and b) bad treatment protocols.
Kirsch is going by the numbers because he's an engineer. Nothing tribal involved, just facts as an engineer studies them.
Where did I get it wrong? Seriously, if I did, I want to know.
Folks. Please sign this for Jordan Peterson! This is Communist ReEducation Tyranny!!!
An online petition has been organized calling on the Ontario College of Psychologists to rescind their unreasonable, undemocratic, and punitive decision to sentence Dr. Jordan Peterson to mandatory re-education.
https://thecountersignal.com/jordan-peterson-says-college-of-psychologists-threatening-him/
Stabs, morphine, midazolam, pillow over the face - Do Not Resuscitate....follow the money. I am betting that not only were the stabs+morphine the murder weapons, but the quacks and tik tokkers were paid to murder. Every Rona death was murder for money.
Has the alarming data for providers 396122 and 315506 been verified? If they are wrong due to data entry errors, that would explain the peculiar square wave, tall height, brief duration pulse in the data set. Such are unlikely in life statistics.
If the data is indeed valid, then this is alarming and we want to know the cause. This could be caused by food poisoning, axe murders, planned death or therapy. If valid, these data demand investigation.
In the tweet that Kirsch tried to pillory, I explained that facility #396122, Fox Subacute in Mechanicsburg, PA, is a unique nursing home facility that specializes in post acute respiratory care, with "Fox Subacute serves patients dependent on life-sustaining ventilators for short and long-term care services" -- one of the few centers focusing on ventilator care. It is not a long-term residential community with relatively healthy seniors, but a center focusing on post-acute respiratory care with beds with ventilators for short and long term care.
http://www.foxsubacute.com/mechanicsburg_overview/
Let's look at what we see in the data for this respiratory/ventilator center.
1. They have 56 beds.
2. They have 22 resident deaths recorded for various weeks, 1/17, 2/7, 2/14, 2/28, 3/14, 3/21 in 2001.
3. Their filled beds don't change much from week to week even after these weeks suggesting they quickly replaced the dying patients with more patients.
4. Pennsylvania had by far its worst covid surge of the entire pandemic spanning from early November to late March that led to the worst covid hospitalization and death rate of the pandemic -- especially in the >70yr old population.
So, what seems more likely for this respiratory care center with ventilator beds?
1. Given the huge surge that overwhelmed PA hospitals more than any other and produced the greatest covid hospitalization and death rates at that time, that patients on ventilators were transferred to this nursing home where many died (unsurprising given their poor prognosis at that point), and then after they died there were plenty of other ventilated patients released from hospitals to take their place (especially given the shortage of nursing facilities in the region specializing in ventilator/respiratory care as documented by this article describing another Fox Subacute site in suburbs of Philadelphia that closed -- https://www.phca.org/news/press-releases/bucks-county-specialized-respiratory-care-facility-officially-closes/)
OR
2. This center decided to vaccinate their post-acute respiratory care residents, many on ventilators, and the vaccine killed them.
Which seems more likely? I suppose there could be an error but these data were supposedly checked for errors, and scenario #1 is very plausible given what was going on locally at the time and the specialized nature of this center.
Says the paid shill for Pharma.
Mass murder and you yawn. Pathetic. With your science blather. What a twisted human being nay deformed pharma slave.
I get $0 from any pharma company and $0 for any of this covid work.
Not sure your definition of a "shill" but I guarantee you it doesn't fit me (in fact all this time I spend on covid stuff is on the side of my main job so if anything it threatens my livelihood and takes away from my ability to earn extra $).
And I guarantee you if there was anything akin to mass murder going on, I'd be speaking up. If the claims made by Steve and others checked out to scrutiny, I'd be speaking out on them as well.
People like Steve are making all kinds of demonstrably false claims to get you worked up in a lather. A careful evaluation of their claims, analytical methods and data reveal all kinds of epidemiological and logical fallacies. The claims fall apart when critically evaluated, especially when considered in light of all available data and evidence (with cherry picking/confirmation bias blocking out the vast contradicting evidence and amplification of any supporting information, often distorted) being one of the primary tactics.
I'm sorry you can't see it.
See below for the other location -- the Sewell resident.
It is not a specific acute respiratory care center but is a center with post-acute rehabilitation services as well.
Thank you for your kind reply.
It seems fishy to me that 22 deaths keeps showing up, the exact same number, week after week. Natural epidemics don't usually hit the same number repeatedly.
And that's why I asked if anyone has verified the raw data. It would be a shame to do a lot of work to speculate hypotheses to explain the raw data if the data are simply wrong.
Hence - Is the data valid?
I agree that is quite strange and could possibly be an error.
But there could be some other explanation, e.g. if they have a specific ward with 22 beds that are reserved for the most advanced ventilated patients or is quarantined for those who might be infectious -- in which case it might effectively be a hospice for dying covid patients on ventilators.
But it is hard to know for sure without checking with the facility (if they are willing to talk about such things)
It sounds like we don't know if these 2 data groups are accurate.
Verifying them would seem to be the first order of business.
Possibly.
But honestly if you look at these data closely you see a lot of centers with very strange data - many with short periods of time with incredibly high numbers of deaths but with no reduction in occupied beds. And many of them are not during the winter 2020-21 period (that had the most massive covid/death surge of the pandemic in these data sets, and that also overlaps with time of vaccine rollouts). Many others appear in 2020 during times of local surges.
It is possible that some of these are wrong -- but also quite possible these are individuals sent to the nursing home after hospital release which we knew went on a lot early in 2020.
And we know if you look at the websites for many of these centers that a substantial proportion of their beds (all of them in some cases) are used for rehabbing post-acute patients released from the hospital -- for which of course the death/infection/admission patterns will differ from (relatively) healthy long-term residents in assisted living etc.
This was the main point I was trying to make to Steve in my tweets but he is not interested in thinking about how the dynamic of short term post-acute patients in nursing homes would be reflected differently in these data than long-term residents.
He says this in his article: "Losing 77% to 83% of your average occupancy in a month is hugely problematic. The average nursing home in the US has around a 40% turnover per year which is just 3.3% per month. So those rates are “off-the-charts.” They are over 23X higher than the average nursing home." So, I think he's comparing to to the average nursing home in the US not each home's history.
So what?
This is not an isolated event. All over the G20 the same happened in different homes and facilities. In the UK 30 K were murdered within 3 months, spring 2020, mapped to a rollout of 2 mn shots of midazolam. All 30 K ascribed to Rona. Every stab program - the same acceleration in death rates.
Open your eyes to the murders.
If the average death rate years, months previous to the stab rollouts is 55 x less than what occurs post stab, yeah data boy, there is a problem.
Not sure how you can believe Kirsch's analysis.
In this tweet ( https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1694819462397006029?s=20 ),
I plot Steve's "IFR" over time and show how badly he cherry picked the post-vaccination period to a short 3 month time period (1/3/21-4/4/21) to make his narrative that it had increased after vaccination appear true.
If you look at the entire post vaccination period in these data including 4/4/21-8/6/23, you see his "IFR" value quickly drops from his cherry picked period and by mid-2022 drops to be 10x lower for the duration of the period.
In the follow-up tweet ( https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1694823462190068040?s=20 )
I plot the total cases, covid deaths, and all cause deaths over time from these data, and show how Steve did this -- by cherry picking a period with VERY low case and covid death counts (in fact lowest of the entire pandemic) for which IFR doesn't mean much. You can see that once cases come up again, the covid/all-cause deaths remain very low, and the post-vaccination nursing home resident had DRAMATICALLY lower IFR than pre-vaccination.
You can also see that the total covid cases/deaths and total deaths decreased immediately after vaccination and remained lower in the 2.5yrs since that time than any time pre-vaccination.
What date are you using for the inception of vaccination, and what is your source for that date?
That's Steve's choice in his analysis if you look at his post.
He uses 5/31/00-1/3/21 as the "pre-vaccination period" in his analysis (leaving off the first week of data 5/24/00 that has huge covid deaths).
Then he uses 1/3/21-4/4/21 as the "post-vaccination period", and then just ignores 4/4/21-8/6/23 (which incidentally shows much lower covid and all cause deaths and "IFR" than any other time pre-vaccine).
This is the point I am making here -- look at the plots in my tweets above (sadly I can't attach a graph here).
Again, thanks for your reply. Responding (with too much) ...
1. re: "first week of data 5/24/00 that has huge covid deaths".
The CMS methodology specifically states that the submittals for 5/24/00 may, but need not, include data from as early as 1/1/2020. And so in some cases we see a one week tally on that date, and in other cases see quite large tallies covering unstated breadth. As analysts, we are obliged to follow CMS guidance to not use the 5/24/00 in time sequenced graphs.
2. I'm glad to know the inception date used for the analysis. The CMS data is unhelpful on inception, generally expressing first evidence of vaccination around May 2021, depending on the provider, and expressed as a fully vaxxed condition. I still wonder if the first appearance of fully vaxxed data points comes with the first time CMS asked for those specifically. I know of nursing home staff who were fully vaxxed in January 2021.
3. I would expect that, in the real world, different facilities would begin these therapies at different times. As said, CMS does include data about this within the data set we are discussing. It sure would be helpfull if they did.
4. One way of aggregating the time series is to align them by calendar date. This is the easiest thing to do. Another option is to align them by calendar date facility inception date. With that second approach, any therapy consequence will be most sharply defined on a graph, and otherwise any trend discontinuity will be "fuzzed out".
5. re: the post vaccination period. There are lots of ways to do this. If the period is too broad, the Covid related signals become irrelevant as other killers emerge (kangaroo pox?). Too short, and you risk missing the edge of any cliff. What we are looking for is a change of presentation after inception of vaccination, or after accumulation of vaccination. For us, change of presentation appears as a discontinuity in the slope of an incidence graph. If the vaccines help, death rates fall obviously, if they hurt, they rise, and if they do nothing, then the slope won;t change.
6. We aren't dealing with single variables. Some of the patients got more shots than others. Some patients declined the vaccine. We must allow for the possibility that people's immune response might have developed differently according to whether they were inoculated or not. We should be alert to the possibility that subject populations became more robust over time, if the inoculated developed a stronger immunity, or if part of the population died out preferentially (ugh, horrible word) - is this called "survivor bias"? The data set unfortunately does not give us clarity on this because the submittals do not segregate control from treated. My point is that there is more than one hypothesis for why death counts would fall over time post vaccination.
"SURVIVOR BIAS"
two words, worth to mention and keep in mind.
"HCE" Healthy Vaccinee Effect , dito.
a very early idea concerning efficiency of vaccination, especially by counting the deadly outcome, is that there is none , if HCE & Survivor bias is taken into account ! ...at least none positive
The most vulnerable ones ar not vaccinated due to HC specification.
the (next) most vulnerable (who got vaccinated) die often soon after vax dose, just before that certain time point, from where on efficiency is calculated.
(leading to SURVIVOR BIAS)
so we have to look on data strictly by safety orientated criterias, not by efficiency ones.
UK statistic office published nice data in a highly regular way every two month till around midth of 2022.
these showed increased death rates till around week 7-9 after last dose ,maximum week 5. Both for ALL age groups !!
The HCE could hardly overwhelm just the first week; death count of week 2 after vax dose reached already nearly later average numbers.
I bed them to show data counting deaths after each dose separately to gain more clarity.
They refused,instead they stopped next report ,announced delay once, announced twice, and more than half year later they reported even less data!!
I tell this, because (almost only? ) data like this shows great robustness against differences of compared cohorts and their variety over time.
But if 90 yr old Granny gets the fake PCR test and dies - than Rona is counted. Another paid event.
But if Granny is stabbed up and dies - it is okay, she was old and other causal factors are at work (and it wasn't even magic day 21 either, ergo unstabbinated!)
The covid attribution on the deaths is clearly inaccurate in many cases in this data base. Check the huge surge of deaths at the beginning dates in March 24, 2000 in many places where it is clearly due to the massive covid surge but for some centers they don't list them as covid deaths, and others they did.
This is one of the reasons I told Steve that taking the ratio of recorded covid deaths to recorded covid cases from this database is not a valid estimate of infection fatality rate.
Well, that didn’t take long to get blocked off his Twitter. I guess when you remind people that trusting science is detrimental to one’s health including his, you get blocked.
He's hand-waving over here now.
Clearly he doesn’t know that free thinkers and truth seekers flood Steve’s Substack. Run him down with concrete information.
Hello dear Steve Kirsch, i couldnt spend much time right now,but due to some experience by reading data I try to ask you some questions, immediately coming up by watching xls. data from 315506.
These data seems not plausibel to me.
First:
ACM. there ar 7 figures IN a ROW only showing 20 o 21 , where before and after stands 3 and 0 ,and over all there ist no other figure >9 . this would be to much for me to take this figures for real.
Please check it by other hard fact information. I guess this is not that special facility where you did so, right?
Second:
When C-deaths occured in Dez20, the occupancy suddenly drops down from 90 to less than 80.
this is in line with what is expected to happen.
Completly different is what we see for Jan-March,when the huge mortality is shown.
Synchronically the figures for occupancy even increases!?
I keep no explanation in mind other than the high ACM-figures ar mistakes.
Do u or someone else have other idea?
This facility also specializes in rehab for people released from the hospital, including cardiac and respiratory care as seen on their website: https://www.promedicaskillednursing.org/locations/promedica-skilled-nursing-and-rehabilitation-washington-township/?contentIdString=14125&contentNameString=Treatment%20Expertise
During these weeks when 20 people die, note that their total occupied bed doesn't decrease but goes up, so they are gaining >20 patients per week.
This facility is in Sewell, NJ, which is a suburb of Philadelphia (where I live), has a massive surge of covid hospitalizations from November, 2020 through February, 2021. It is plausible that they had large numbers of cardiac/respiratory patients released into this facility after being hospitalized by COVID-19 during this time, and a number of them died during this period.
Steve can call them and check if he wants, but that is at least a plausible explanation, while vaccine deaths are not.
If these were long term residents dropping dead from vaccination (which actually started in December 2020, not late January 2021), then why would their total number of filled beds not decrease when 20 of these people were dying every week, but actually increase?
Given we KNOW this facility as described on their website does this type of rehabilitative care, the only explanation (beyond data error) is that rehabilitative patients were being enrolled rapidly in the center during this time.
The professor, for all his hand waving, should be transferred to Hawaii to teach ALOHA dancing!
Steve, excellent analysis and very well explained with REAL data. A fool could see the correlations. The ACM for Jan-March 2021 is stunning to say the least. Clearly, Professor Morris exemplifies this cute little game of trust me because I have academic credentials and believe me because my OPINION counts more than real data because I'm an expert. Steve would destroy this guy in an open debate but of course they all hide behind their computer spreading lies and misinformation.
$cience.
Spot on. "I have academic credentials and believe me because my OPINION counts more than real data because I'm an expert."
Fall to your knees. Morris the guy who has trouble with 2+2 is doing his analysis....