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The 2015-2019 average baseline used by ABS is too low because Australia has an increasing trend in deaths per year because of the aging population.
At Mortality Watch Australia has only about 1.3% excess deaths in 2021 relative to a 2010-2019 linear baseline: mortality.watch/explore…. And there's 162,680 deaths in 2020 which is higher tha…
The 2015-2019 average baseline used by ABS is too low because Australia has an increasing trend in deaths per year because of the aging population.
At Mortality Watch Australia has only about 1.3% excess deaths in 2021 relative to a 2010-2019 linear baseline: https://www.mortality.watch/explorer/?c=AUS&t=deaths&e=0&df=2004. And there's 162,680 deaths in 2020 which is higher than the 2015-2019 average (161,191).
This demonstrates how a 2015-2019 average baseline is inaccurate in New Zealand: https://i.ibb.co/5n6LT2M/new-zealand-baseline-types.png.