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In Figure 1 from the Hungarian study, the survival probabilities are not adjusted for age. Table S1 shows that during the period displayed in Figure 1, the average age was about 45.6 for unvaccinated people, 45.0 for Janssen, 50.1 for Sputnik, 56.9 for Moderna, and 57.9 for Pfizer: mdpi.com/article/10.339…. So it explains why the surviva…
In Figure 1 from the Hungarian study, the survival probabilities are not adjusted for age. Table S1 shows that during the period displayed in Figure 1, the average age was about 45.6 for unvaccinated people, 45.0 for Janssen, 50.1 for Sputnik, 56.9 for Moderna, and 57.9 for Pfizer: https://www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/vaccines10071009/s1. So it explains why the survival probability was low for Moderna and Pfizer but high for Janssen and Sputnik.
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Your 2010-2019 linear baseline for CMR in Hong Kong might not be accurate, because the trend in CMR in 2014-2019 seemed to be curved upwards, and even 2019 was already clearly above the 2010-2019 trend: https://www.mortality.watch/explorer/?c=HKG&t=cmr&df=2005&bf=2010&bt=2019. In fact there is a fairly smooth curved trend in 2016-2020 but 2021 seems to be below the curve.
Wilf didn't claim that Singapore had no excess deaths until 2022, because he pointed out that excess deaths in Singapore started in "Oct-2021, with Delta". However my plot here shows that Singapore had close to 0% excess deaths in the first half of 2021 when people got vaccinated: https://i.ibb.co/DG6SPZK/owid-singapore-hongkong-korea-australia.png. My plot also shows that in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia, the PCR positivity rate also remained close to zero until 2022, but in 2022 there was a sharp spike in excess deaths which coincided with a sharp spike in the PCR positivity rate. Why would vaccines not result in excess deaths in 2021 but they would only result in a short-lived sharp spike in deaths in 2022? In South Korea the spike did not even coincide with the booster rollout because the booster rollout had peaked about 3 months earlier.
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I addressed some of your initial claims here: https://kirschsubstack.com/p/did-the-covid-vaccine-save-more-people/comment/83527021. Edit: Improved version with images posted here: sars2.net/rootclaim.html.