One confounding variable is there are probably lifestyle differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. We know from the exemptions that healthcare workers are more likely to be exempt than the general population, and they generally have healthier lifestyles, so the baseline P(death) should be different in the different buckets.
I am a medical professional. In my own personal experience, healthcare workers do not have healthier lifestyles than the rest of the population. Apart from the fact that in general they don't eat a healthy diet, they are also subject to the longevity reducing effects of sleep deprivation and nightwork/circadian rythm disruption.
Steve, In your synthetic model, it would be good to account for seasonality in death rate/month (winter effect).
If you wanted event more sophistication you could model synthetic p(D) based on age band and month of year from historical averages - it all on https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/
Using NZ data 2010-2019 we get this distribution by month:
I do not have any erudite comments or further enlightenment to add. I would, however, like to thank Steve Kirsch for all the great work he does, which I can then read and understand. Those of us who are math-challenged appreciate all such folks. What I know is that I made a choice based on (non-math) logic, and I see the fruits of my choice. Meanwhile, I am trying to understand what is happening around me, and this really does help so much.
At some point, those people will have to admit that they were were duped, scammed, snookered, played, conned, fooled, hornswoggled, flimflammed, suckered, or bilked.
"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back." Carl Sagan
Assuming the death rate from the vaccinated cohort for the synthetic baseline is questionable though.
The actual death rate of unvaccinated can put the blue hump under or over the red line, depending on whether the vaxx is net beneficial (not in my opinion) or the opposite. It's "catch 22". We need the actual death rate for unvaccinated.
In any case, I am not sure how we go from the blue hump to Steve's "killed 1 in every 1000"
Going by "Cumulative analysis of post-authorization adverse event reports of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) received through 28-Feb-2021", while taking into account the underreporting rate (98%) and generously assuming that all 40M doses distributed by the time were administered, yields a very conservatives ~ 0.1% (1 in every 1000) fatality rate caused by Pfizer, according to Pfizer itself.
Just how the Wright family could have been happy with the way Steve was treated during that first interview what seems like a lifetime ago now, beats me. I know plenty of 'good southern' people and nobody I've spoken to thought that was anything approaching respectful.
Their sandpit, their rules, and I'm sure Steve has been called worse than a liar and that's water off a ducks back, but if I'm not mistaken, they won't have Steve back on and it seems obvious to almost everyone that they won't be giving Steve a right of reply to the claims made by their latest "real expert". I think Liz might try in time but she seems a bit preoccupied with staying 'at large' at the mo'
If you really want to get Steve Kirsch upset tell him his friend Dr. McCullough has just surpassed him as number one MisInformation SuperSpreader on Google.
That will work for a minute at least until he immediately googles it and shows you the screenshot that he is still number one!
Add to that Peter is, IIRC and if the narrative protection team have their way, to be stripped of his doctoring. I believe that's a home-run even Steve will struggle to better. The best he's been able to muster lately is some whimpering about someone deleting his wasabi data. I mean, c'mon. If he was still the world's biggest misinfoSuperSpreader, he'd be 14 months into a siege of his house and they would have cut the cables by now.
Whilst nobody likes to see assorted cornered rats who have tried as hard as they can (despite the human costs) to protect the narrative, lashing out like our various overlords are, the silver lining must surely be while trapped in a corner, these rats can't flee their sinking ship and are likely to go down with it.
Given what I know about immunology, and I am not an expert, I predicted in early 2021 that we'd see spikes in illness and deaths following a post-jab pattern. These won't necessarily the be same types of illnesses and deaths, but the time frames are predictable:
- first 2 days
- at 2 weeks
- at 2 months
- at 6-8 months
- at 2 years
- at 5 years
- at 7-10 years.
The reason is both simple and complex. Chronic poisoning is going to damage bodies in all sorts of different ways with different organs and systems succumbing based on how the poison becomes entrenched in that person and the individual tolerance of the person.
Sucharit Bhakdi predicted many of the maladies we are now seeing in the jabbed, and he did that solely by reading the press releases that were coming out of Pfizer, et al, before the jabs even rolled out. Many times he said that he hoped he was wrong, but you could tell he knew he was right, and it was causing him visible distress.
Apparently, for every Experimental injection you accept, your natural immune system is depleted by around 3%. So keep taking the jab and the depopulation program will be a huge success!
The clue is in the fact that Covid 'vax' makers accept NO LIABILITY for any injuries or DEATHS caused by their 'Experimental' (supposedly "Safe and EFFECTIVE") injections.
Join the dots and STOP being a mug. You'll live longer!
Mick from Hooe (Unjabbed and ready to fight dirty!
An Op-ed has been posted on Trial Site News titled "Eye Disorders Post-COVID-19 Vaccinations" (https://www.trialsitenews.com/a/eye-disorders-post-covid-19-vaccinations-2acda7d0). It documents the wider scope of eye disorder symptoms that appeared in VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System) following COVID-19 vaccinations, and addresses post-Influenza vaccination eye disorders as well. These types of disorders do not receive the attention that the more well-known cardiac disorders and cancers do, but they are quite prevalent, as the results show.
It reads like a guest post and in the first paragragh it uses "Steve" in the third person. Also, it doesn't sound like Steve's 'voice'. Am I missing something?
Strangeness abounds. I'm getting identical views of kirschsubstack.com on (a) Galaxy8 tablet w/Opera (b) Asus/Ryzen Win10 w/Firefox, (c) old Dell Win7 laptop w/Tusk, (d) old Dell LinuxMint21.2 w/Vivaldi, and (e) a friend in Houston reports the same thing on his Mac. They only show this info for the (top) most recent article (cut/pasted):
"It's always the last dose that gets you
A first analysis of the NZ record-level data
Dec 5"
Steve should put in a byline like, "A guest post by Mike Deskevich, PhD".
Yes, I know Steve is just a tad busy, but I save most of his articles, and provenance is important.
1. Steve's opening statement was "It's always the last dose that gets you."
2. You said: "That opening statement is not factual. I personally knew three people who became deathly ill immediately following their first dose."
3. If they didn't go back for more then it follows logically that their first dose was also their last dose, and if so Steve's statement was factually correct and you are wrong.
4. You don't know if they went back for more or not, which is additional support for Steve potentially being correct, which suggests that you disagreed with him just for the sake of disagreeing and being argumentative.
The death effect is notable yet seems smaller than I expected, at least so far. I don’t mean to sound insensitive but all of this expense and destruction of trust for this? Are the 40 mechanisms of death that Dr. Tenpenny describes slowly advancing upon humanity, are the track and trace Bluetooth effects long lasting and continuous amongst the jabbed, is a future 5G pulse enough to make Deagel’s estimates come to fruition?
If the vaccine kills more people than it saves (which the gold-standard RCTs show and the totality of other mortality data also strongly suggests), doesn't that matter A LOT?
Steve, is there valid study done on health risks from receiving blood transfusions of mRNA vaccinated donors?
In the light of rising mortality rates among the vaccinated populations...
One confounding variable is there are probably lifestyle differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people. We know from the exemptions that healthcare workers are more likely to be exempt than the general population, and they generally have healthier lifestyles, so the baseline P(death) should be different in the different buckets.
I am a medical professional. In my own personal experience, healthcare workers do not have healthier lifestyles than the rest of the population. Apart from the fact that in general they don't eat a healthy diet, they are also subject to the longevity reducing effects of sleep deprivation and nightwork/circadian rythm disruption.
Steve, In your synthetic model, it would be good to account for seasonality in death rate/month (winter effect).
If you wanted event more sophistication you could model synthetic p(D) based on age band and month of year from historical averages - it all on https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/
Using NZ data 2010-2019 we get this distribution by month:
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
avg deaths 2546.7 2233.5 2432.4 2411.4 2705.1 2649 2941.2 3019.5 2815.2 2715.3 2583.3 2403.6
ratio 8.10% 7.10% 7.73% 7.67% 8.60% 8.42% 9.35% 9.60% 8.95% 8.63% 8.21% 7.64%
diff 0.24% 1.23% 0.60% 0.67% -0.27% -0.09% -1.02% -1.27% -0.62% -0.30% 0.12% 0.69%
I do not have any erudite comments or further enlightenment to add. I would, however, like to thank Steve Kirsch for all the great work he does, which I can then read and understand. Those of us who are math-challenged appreciate all such folks. What I know is that I made a choice based on (non-math) logic, and I see the fruits of my choice. Meanwhile, I am trying to understand what is happening around me, and this really does help so much.
If you're jabbed you are going to believe the jabs are good.
It really is that simple...
At some point, those people will have to admit that they were were duped, scammed, snookered, played, conned, fooled, hornswoggled, flimflammed, suckered, or bilked.
Pick one.
I prefer bamboozled.
"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back." Carl Sagan
Adding this bit of wisdom from Carl Sagan to my 'fortunes' file, as in the UX fortune program.
I agree. As time passes the news regarding these jabs just gets UGLIER.
The jabbed know. Admitting it is another matter, but they know.
I've learned much about human psychology these past three years...
I've always been partial to hornswoggled and "taken to the cleaners."
And your mind is closed to any other possibility!
Mike Deskevich's logic checks out IMHO.
Assuming the death rate from the vaccinated cohort for the synthetic baseline is questionable though.
The actual death rate of unvaccinated can put the blue hump under or over the red line, depending on whether the vaxx is net beneficial (not in my opinion) or the opposite. It's "catch 22". We need the actual death rate for unvaccinated.
In any case, I am not sure how we go from the blue hump to Steve's "killed 1 in every 1000"
Going by "Cumulative analysis of post-authorization adverse event reports of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) received through 28-Feb-2021", while taking into account the underreporting rate (98%) and generously assuming that all 40M doses distributed by the time were administered, yields a very conservatives ~ 0.1% (1 in every 1000) fatality rate caused by Pfizer, according to Pfizer itself.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/wp-content/uploads/pfizer-doc-5.3.6-postmarketing-experience.pdf
Why do we even need this NZ analyses?
Steve, Sean Plunket just called you a "liar" on his show that interviewed an expert to 'fact check' the NZ data claims:
https://theplatform.kiwi/podcasts/episode/a-real-expert-explains-why-liz-gunns-moar-is-complete-crock
He's funded by a secretive rich lister, apparently because his show can't survive on it's own.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300667750/meet-the-secretive-rich-lister-bankrolling-sean-plunkets-the-platform
Just how the Wright family could have been happy with the way Steve was treated during that first interview what seems like a lifetime ago now, beats me. I know plenty of 'good southern' people and nobody I've spoken to thought that was anything approaching respectful.
Their sandpit, their rules, and I'm sure Steve has been called worse than a liar and that's water off a ducks back, but if I'm not mistaken, they won't have Steve back on and it seems obvious to almost everyone that they won't be giving Steve a right of reply to the claims made by their latest "real expert". I think Liz might try in time but she seems a bit preoccupied with staying 'at large' at the mo'
:-)
If you really want to get Steve Kirsch upset tell him his friend Dr. McCullough has just surpassed him as number one MisInformation SuperSpreader on Google.
That will work for a minute at least until he immediately googles it and shows you the screenshot that he is still number one!
Add to that Peter is, IIRC and if the narrative protection team have their way, to be stripped of his doctoring. I believe that's a home-run even Steve will struggle to better. The best he's been able to muster lately is some whimpering about someone deleting his wasabi data. I mean, c'mon. If he was still the world's biggest misinfoSuperSpreader, he'd be 14 months into a siege of his house and they would have cut the cables by now.
Whilst nobody likes to see assorted cornered rats who have tried as hard as they can (despite the human costs) to protect the narrative, lashing out like our various overlords are, the silver lining must surely be while trapped in a corner, these rats can't flee their sinking ship and are likely to go down with it.
Given what I know about immunology, and I am not an expert, I predicted in early 2021 that we'd see spikes in illness and deaths following a post-jab pattern. These won't necessarily the be same types of illnesses and deaths, but the time frames are predictable:
- first 2 days
- at 2 weeks
- at 2 months
- at 6-8 months
- at 2 years
- at 5 years
- at 7-10 years.
The reason is both simple and complex. Chronic poisoning is going to damage bodies in all sorts of different ways with different organs and systems succumbing based on how the poison becomes entrenched in that person and the individual tolerance of the person.
In other words, hold onto your hats, folks.
Sucharit Bhakdi predicted many of the maladies we are now seeing in the jabbed, and he did that solely by reading the press releases that were coming out of Pfizer, et al, before the jabs even rolled out. Many times he said that he hoped he was wrong, but you could tell he knew he was right, and it was causing him visible distress.
Apparently, for every Experimental injection you accept, your natural immune system is depleted by around 3%. So keep taking the jab and the depopulation program will be a huge success!
The clue is in the fact that Covid 'vax' makers accept NO LIABILITY for any injuries or DEATHS caused by their 'Experimental' (supposedly "Safe and EFFECTIVE") injections.
Join the dots and STOP being a mug. You'll live longer!
Mick from Hooe (Unjabbed and ready to fight dirty!
“death count gets to 0 at the end.” We’ll call this the opt-out effect. Brought to you by anti vaxxers or former vaxxers (aka anti boosters).
An Op-ed has been posted on Trial Site News titled "Eye Disorders Post-COVID-19 Vaccinations" (https://www.trialsitenews.com/a/eye-disorders-post-covid-19-vaccinations-2acda7d0). It documents the wider scope of eye disorder symptoms that appeared in VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System) following COVID-19 vaccinations, and addresses post-Influenza vaccination eye disorders as well. These types of disorders do not receive the attention that the more well-known cardiac disorders and cancers do, but they are quite prevalent, as the results show.
Who wrote this article? There's no byline.
It reads like a guest post and in the first paragragh it uses "Steve" in the third person. Also, it doesn't sound like Steve's 'voice'. Am I missing something?
Data scientist Mike Deskevich.
Where did you find this?
On the initial description of the stack that appeared on it, prior to opening it.
Strangeness abounds. I'm getting identical views of kirschsubstack.com on (a) Galaxy8 tablet w/Opera (b) Asus/Ryzen Win10 w/Firefox, (c) old Dell Win7 laptop w/Tusk, (d) old Dell LinuxMint21.2 w/Vivaldi, and (e) a friend in Houston reports the same thing on his Mac. They only show this info for the (top) most recent article (cut/pasted):
"It's always the last dose that gets you
A first analysis of the NZ record-level data
Dec 5"
Steve should put in a byline like, "A guest post by Mike Deskevich, PhD".
Yes, I know Steve is just a tad busy, but I save most of his articles, and provenance is important.
I read it here -- https://confirmed-adverse-reactions.blogspot.com/2023/12/a-first-analysis-of-nz-record-level.html
There's no mystery about deaths in NZ in 2022. There are none left to be explained by 'the vaccine'. https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/132369176/fact-checking-claims-about-new-zealands-2022-death-rate
That opening statement is not factual. I personally knew three people who became deathly ill immediately follow
Following their first dose.
Deathly ill? Obviously they survived if they lined up for more doses. They must have thought it was good stuff to go back for more.
You're not paying attention. I never said they went back for more and I don't know if they did or not because I never spoke to them after.
Please learn how to read and stop projecting.
1. Steve's opening statement was "It's always the last dose that gets you."
2. You said: "That opening statement is not factual. I personally knew three people who became deathly ill immediately following their first dose."
3. If they didn't go back for more then it follows logically that their first dose was also their last dose, and if so Steve's statement was factually correct and you are wrong.
4. You don't know if they went back for more or not, which is additional support for Steve potentially being correct, which suggests that you disagreed with him just for the sake of disagreeing and being argumentative.
5. Reflect on what that says about you.
😂
Excellent writeup and compilation!
The death effect is notable yet seems smaller than I expected, at least so far. I don’t mean to sound insensitive but all of this expense and destruction of trust for this? Are the 40 mechanisms of death that Dr. Tenpenny describes slowly advancing upon humanity, are the track and trace Bluetooth effects long lasting and continuous amongst the jabbed, is a future 5G pulse enough to make Deagel’s estimates come to fruition?
If the vaccine kills more people than it saves (which the gold-standard RCTs show and the totality of other mortality data also strongly suggests), doesn't that matter A LOT?