Executive summary
All the methods below are consistent with the 1 in 1,000 hypothesis; some are a bit more, some predict less.
This is not a per dose estimate. This is an overall estimate on a per person basis. Some people got 1 shot. Others had 8 or more shots.
1 in 1,000 means that if 5.5B people are vaccinated, I’m estimating it led to 5.5M excess deaths over a 5 year period, or about 1.1M excess deaths per year. On a 65M worldwide deaths per year, that’s an increase of less than 2% per year. This is why it is easy to miss.
1. The Levi-Ladapo study
This is my favorite study. They compared the non-COVID mortality of two matched groups: one that took Pfizer, one that took Moderna.
The matching was extensive; more extensive than almost any other study.
The matching used was more extensive than Barbra A. Dickerman’s matching and she showed the SMD’s were small on co-morbidities even if you just matched on demographics (2 papers).
The non-COVID all-cause mortality should have been identical in the two groups. It wasn’t.
Non-COVID-19 mortality risk was higher in BNT162b2 recipients compared to mRNA-1273 recipients (OR [95% CI]: 1.374 [1.325, 1.425]).
The most conservative estimate is that Moderna is 100% safe and Pfizer has a 32% higher death rate for 1 year only. Since the Pfizer Moderna split in the US was around 60/40, this would be a 19% mortality increase in 1 year in the mortality of the vaccinated.
But the vaccinated are healthier than the vaccinated (in terms of mortality in the general public and this is caused by selection bias; this is the static HVE effect and is readily verifiable in the Czech record level data for example as noted in the Mirror of Erised paper.), and not everyone in the US was vaccinated. So if 75% got the shots, and those Americans are healthier than the unvaccinated Americans by 20%, we’re looking at an 11% increase in mortality.
The death rate in the US is around .903% so 11% applied to that is 1 per 1,007 which is close to my estimate my 1 per 1,000 estimate.
2. Charles Hoffe
Hoffe reported 1 vaccine death in 900 patients vaccinated. He’s a careful sole practitioner so he knew his patients and why they died.
3. Private Canadian doctor
Another Canadian doctor with a 1,200 patient practice reported 3 vaccine related deaths in his practice, but not all were vaccinated. So that’s well in excess of the 1 per 1,000 estimate.
4. VAERS
There were 34.5K deaths in VAERS in 2021 and 2022. Take away 500 baseline deaths per year reported and that is 33.5K deaths. VAERS underreporting factor (URF) is 26.
26*33.5=871K deaths.
That is well over the 1 per 1,000 estimate since only around 300M people got the COVID shots.
5. FDNY
6 members of FDNY died within 3 months of the COVID vaccine rollout. This is unprecedented. Normally, they might see 1 and at most 2 deaths in a year for active duty firemen. If you run the numbers, the chance of this being a “coincidence” is 2.7e-7. In short, something killed a whole lot of really healthy young people and if it wasn’t the vaccine, what was it? It wasn’t COVID and it wasn’t bad luck.
There are 11,000 active duty FDNY. Assuming they all got the shot and all deaths from the shot ONLY happened within 3 months of the shot, then the 6 deaths is a kill rate of 1 in 1,833. So that’s lower than my estimates, but this is only from 3 months of data and assumes nobody died after the 3 month window. Not reasonable.
6. Men’s soccer coach
I spoke today to the 10 year coach of a men’s soccer team. She mentioned that before the COVID shots, they never had a death on the 80 person team (ages 26-33 all men).
They had 3 deaths since the shots rolled out: 2022, 2023, and 2025. Two were prion disease and one was cardiac.
80 vaccinated, 3 unexpected deaths. That’s more than 1 per 1,000 for sure; it’s like 1 in 27.
7. Jay Bonnar
Jay Bonnar lost 15 friends unexpectedly since the shots rolled out. Four of them died on the same day as their shot and 3 of the 4 were 30 or younger. Before the shots, his died suddenly death count was 0.
This is statistically impossible (5e-22) and his story is verifiable. I verified it myself since he provided all the names. Fact checkers seem uninterested for some reason.
Jay only knows around 15,000 people so he just happens to be around 1 per 1,000 as well.
Most people are lower than Jay because they aren’t as well networked as Jay.
8. Doctors and nurses in the US reporting on their patient base (72 different practices reporting)
Observations from doctors, nurses, and paramedics in the US show a variety of death rates, some higher than 1 per 1,000, some lower.
The comments though are stunning. Worth reading if you are still skeptical.
9. Wayne Root
Here’s the original story.
Here’s the summary:
200 guests at Wayne Root’s wedding
100 vaxxed
100 unvaxed
He checked on them 8 months AFTER the wedding and found:
Among the vaxxed:
26 seriously injured
7 dead
Among the unvaxxed:
0 injured
0 dead
This is like a real-world clinical trial. We have a control group and a vaccinated group.
7 in 100 dead is far in excess of my 1 per 1,000 estimate.
It’s hard to explain if the vaccine is safe.
10. George Fareed’s medical practice
George just texted me. 2 vaccine deaths in 3,000 patients.
In this case, slightly under the 1 per 1,000 number. My estimate is an average so some observations will be higher, some lower.
11. X survey
Most of my followers on X believe the increase in mortality was higher than my 10% estimate.
12. V-safe
8% required professional medical care after their vaccination.
1% to 2% are estimated to be disabled.
So is it that hard to imagine that 1 in 10 of those ended up dead?
Among the 10M reporters:
1,722 unique V-safe registrants flagged as “Death”
1,521 of those were reported by a family member
As of August 2025, the CDC had forwarded only 26 of those to VAERS
Sounds pretty safe doesn’t it? The problem is that if you have 10M people in v-safe, 100K are going to die over a 1 year period. Yet they had only 1,722 death reports instead of 100K.
This means V-Safe is extremely unreliable for assessing deaths.
Summary
There are more examples. These are just the ones off the top of my head.
What do you think? Please share your own stories, especially if you know of death rates in LARGE groups where a death in the group is tracked and constant over time like pilots, police officers, firemen, healthcare workers, your church, your private adult living community, nursing homes, etc.
Data from US insurers indicate they paid out on 20 million excess deaths, and this population gap was covered up by allowing 20 million replacement population into the country. The population statistics have remained largely stable as a result. Other calculations have put global excess deaths to the Covid shots at 17 million.
My guesstimate is 1 per 600… through my friends and family network and public info