Executive summary
The 14 different estimation methods listed below are consistent with the 1 in 1,000 hypothesis; some are a bit more, some predict less.
This is not a per dose estimate. This is an overall estimate on a per person basis. Some people got 1 shot. Others had 8 or more shots.
1 in 1,000 means that if 5.5B people are vaccinated, I’m estimating it led to 5.5M excess deaths over a 5 year period, or about 1.1M excess deaths per year. On a 65M worldwide deaths per year, that’s an increase of less than 2% per year. This is why it is easy to miss.
1. The Levi-Ladapo study
This is my favorite study. They compared the non-COVID mortality of two matched groups: one that took Pfizer, one that took Moderna.
The matching was extensive; more extensive than almost any other study.
The matching used was more extensive than Barbra A. Dickerman’s matching and she showed the SMD’s were small on co-morbidities even if you just matched on demographics (2 papers).
The non-COVID all-cause mortality should have been identical in the two groups. It wasn’t.
Non-COVID-19 mortality risk was higher in BNT162b2 recipients compared to mRNA-1273 recipients (OR [95% CI]: 1.374 [1.325, 1.425]).
The most conservative estimate is that Moderna is 100% safe and Pfizer has a 32% higher death rate for 1 year only. Since the Pfizer Moderna split in the US was around 60/40, this would be a 19% mortality increase in 1 year in the mortality of the vaccinated.
But the vaccinated are healthier than the vaccinated (in terms of mortality in the general public and this is caused by selection bias; this is the static HVE effect and is readily verifiable in the Czech record level data for example as noted in the Mirror of Erised paper.), and not everyone in the US was vaccinated. So if 75% got the shots, and those Americans are healthier than the unvaccinated Americans by 20%, we’re looking at an 11% increase in mortality.
The death rate in the US is around .903% so 11% applied to that is 1 per 1,007 which is close to my estimate my 1 per 1,000 estimate.
Nobody wants to talk about this study or replicate it in any other states. The method used is the most accurate method I’m aware of because it compares vaccinated versus vaccinated so it’s immune to the differences between people who opted for vaccination vs. people who declined vaccination.
2. Charles Hoffe
Hoffe reported 1 vaccine death in 900 patients vaccinated. He’s a careful sole practitioner so he knew his patients and why they died.
3. Private Canadian doctors
A Canadian doctor with a 1,200 patient practice reported 3 vaccine related deaths in his practice, but not all were vaccinated. So that’s well in excess of the 1 per 1,000 estimate.
Another Canada doctor (who I verified is a family MD in Alberta, Canada) has been practicing for 25 years. He saw this article and emailed me, “In my medical practice, I would say 1 in 35 of my patients were killed by the vaccines.”
OK, so this is a problem because he didn’t tell me the number of vaccinated patients! We are dealing with Poisson probabilities here and 1 in 35 is completely different than 2 in 70!! Waiting to hear back. But the point is that statistics such as these can help us because this kind of observation may be impossible if the underlying estimate is 1 death per 10,000.
So now I have additional detail and this is quoted verbatim. His practice death rate was flat pre-vaccine, including 2020. Then it doubled. And the people who died died of really odd things, all of which have been linked to COVID vaccine deaths by others. And of the 32 he links to the COVID shots, for him to be wrong, you’d have to show a 25-year practicing doctor got 32 out of 32 death attributions all wrong.
Probably best to not use my name. I can tell you that using electronic medical records I looked at the number of overall deaths in each year for the 10 years up to and including 2020, and compared to the next 4 years. For the first 10 years I averaged 7.6 deaths a year in a practice of about 1100 patients. In 2020 it was 8. The next 4 years it was 16.5 deaths a year. When I looked at all those deaths, I could make a good case that 48.4848% of those who died had their deaths caused by or hastened by the vaccines. I had 3 people die with covid but one fell and hit his head and bled in it. I looked at the other doctors records and they all had similar increases. Deaths under 70, which previously was very rare increased by 4 to 7 times than previously.
All of the excess deaths were vaccinated. Over 4 years 2021 2022 2023 and 2024, 32 patients out of roughly 1100 I believe were killed by the vaccines.
From 2021 to 2024, 32 vaccinated people out of a practice of around 1100 were likely killed by the vaccines. From 2020 to 2024 3 died with covid. 2 were unvaccinated.
…
Reference the other EMR and results, I would bet everyone had similar increases of deaths. The problem is that even when I looked at the other doctors results, they kind of went into a sort of denial as to cause. My practice had rapid cancers, sudden deaths, rapid neurological conditions, aneurysmal growth at rates that don’t normally happen. I had seen people get 14 cm and 8 cm lung cancers that radiated to the spine and hip when I know they had a clear CT scan 2 months before the first injection. I had people with cancers that were cured 20 years previous come back. I would follow similar case reports and studies and this is why I am pretty convinced the increase in deaths was from the shots. If it is just numbers of increase death rates on different practices I can see what I can do.
So his COVID vaccine excess death rate was 29 per 1,000 vaccinated.
So let’s do the math. Let’s say my estimate of 1 per 1000 is correct. Then we just saw 32 deaths and expected to see 1.1 deaths.
Chance of that happening is remote:
I can’t cherry pick this statistic no matter how hard I tried. So this means the COVID vaccine likely killed more than 1 per 1,000. These are medical records, not “an anecdote.” Yes, this is a statistical outlier, but the problem is that it is so outside what is possible to even find as an outlier.
4. VAERS
There were 34.5K deaths in VAERS in 2021 and 2022. Take away 500 baseline deaths per year reported and that is 33.5K deaths. VAERS underreporting factor (URF) is 26.
26*33.5=871K deaths.
That is well over the 1 per 1,000 estimate since only around 300M people got the COVID shots.
The VAERS equivalent in Germany found 54 times more reported deaths from the COVID vaccines than from all other vaccines combined since 2000 (over 21 years).
The question the article leaves hanging is the one from our last exchange: if the signal is this loud in passive reports, why has no one with the mandate run the linked claims-and-mortality analysis that would settle it? The data sits in the funds' hands. The answer keeps being "nobody looked."
Why?
See AlterAI analysis for the German stats including the 5% serious adverse effect rate using insurance data from the 11M insured pooled dataset.
5. FDNY
6 members of FDNY died within 3 months of the COVID vaccine rollout. This is unprecedented. Normally, they might see 1 and at most 2 deaths in a year for active duty firemen. If you run the numbers, the chance of this being a “coincidence” is 2.7e-7. In short, something killed a whole lot of really healthy young people and if it wasn’t the vaccine, what was it? It wasn’t COVID and it wasn’t bad luck.
There are 11,000 active duty FDNY. Assuming they all got the shot and all deaths from the shot ONLY happened within 3 months of the shot, then the 6 deaths is a kill rate of 1 in 1,833. So that’s lower than my estimates, but this is only from 3 months of data and assumes nobody died after the 3 month window. Not reasonable.
6. Men’s rugby coach
I spoke today to the 10 year coach of a men’s rugby team. She is a medical doctor. She mentioned that before the COVID shots, they never had a death on the 80 person team (ages 22-39 all men). The deaths were aged 26 to 33.
They had 3 deaths since the shots rolled out: 2022, 2023, and 2025. Two were prion disease and one was cardiac.
80 vaccinated, 3 unexpected deaths. That’s more than 1 per 1,000 for sure; it’s like 1 in 27.
7. Jay Bonnar
Jay Bonnar lost 15 friends unexpectedly since the shots rolled out. Four of them died on the same day as their shot and 3 of the 4 were 30 or younger. Before the shots, his died suddenly death count was 0.
This is statistically impossible (5e-22) and his story is verifiable. I verified it myself since he provided all the names. Fact checkers seem uninterested for some reason.
Jay only knows around 15,000 people so he just happens to be around 1 per 1,000 as well.
Most people are lower than Jay because they aren’t as well networked as Jay.
8. Doctors and nurses in the US reporting on their patient base (72 different practices reporting)
Observations from doctors, nurses, and paramedics in the US show a variety of death rates, some higher than 1 per 1,000, some lower.
There were more twice as many over 1 per thousand than those at or under 1 per 1000.
The comments though are stunning. Worth reading if you are still skeptical.
9. Wayne Root
Here’s the original story.
Here’s the summary:
200 guests at Wayne Root’s wedding
100 vaxxed
100 unvaxed
He checked on them 8 months AFTER the wedding and found:
Among the vaxxed:
26 seriously injured
7 dead
Among the unvaxxed:
0 injured
0 dead
This is like a real-world clinical trial. We have a control group and a vaccinated group.
7 in 100 dead is far in excess of my 1 per 1,000 estimate.
It’s hard to explain if the vaccine is safe.
10. George Fareed’s medical practice
George just texted me. 2 vaccine deaths in 3,000 patients.
In this case, slightly under the 1 per 1,000 number. My estimate is an average so some observations will be higher, some lower.
11. X survey
My estimate of one per thousand would be a 10% increase in the death rate in one year
Most of my followers on X believe the increase in mortality was higher than my 10% estimate.
12. Reader stories posted for this article
See the comments. Some of these rates are absurdly high. Statistics predicts outliers, but that many of the vaccines are safe seems very unlikely.
13. Family survey of 7,297 families
I asked over 7,000 families what they observed in their family. Not friends. Extended family members.
The survey is here.
The survey results are posted here.
29,031 total vaccinated family members.
1,489 believed by a family member to have died from the COVID vaccine.
So around 51 death per 1,000 vaccinated which I think is way too high, but that’s explainable because people who had death were more likely to report them. About 80,000 people read my articles so it’s a reach of around 240,000 family members. So the 1,500 deaths reported is consistent with the one per thousand estimate.
Wouldn’t it be great if someone tried to replicate this and see what number they got?
14. Ed Dowd estimates
I asked Ed for his estimate and he said between one and three per thousand.
15. McCullough autopsy study
74% of those who died after getting a COVID vaccine died from the vaccine. Whoops.
See A Systematic Review Of Autopsy Findings In Deaths After COVID-19 Vaccination which was unethically removed from preprint servers.
The mean time from vaccination to death was 14.3 days. Most deaths occurred within a week from last vaccine administration. A total of 240 deaths (73.9%) were independently adjudicated as directly due to or significantly contributed to by COVID-19 vaccination, of which the primary causes of death include sudden cardiac death (35%), pulmonary embolism (12.5%), myocardial infarction (12%), VITT (7.9%), myocarditis (7.1%), multisystem inflammatory syndrome (4.6%), and cerebral hemorrhage (3.8%).
This implies a more than a doubling of the normal death rate in the first 2 weeks. So that’s a 4% increase in the annual death rate, but we are only counting deaths caused in the first 2 weeks. So if the deaths were only caused in the first 2 weeks, the rate would be on the order of 1 per 2,000. So once again, our 1 per 1,000 is right in the ballpark based on autopsy evidence.
Also this paper on vaccine-caused deaths (autopsy study).
16. Israel FOIA
18. V-safe
8% required professional medical care after their vaccination.
1% to 2% are estimated to be disabled.
So is it that hard to imagine that 1 in 10 of those ended up dead?
Among the 10M reporters:
1,722 unique V-safe registrants flagged as “Death”
1,521 of those were reported by a family member
As of August 2025, the CDC had forwarded only 26 of those to VAERS
Sounds pretty safe doesn’t it? The problem is that if you have 10M people in v-safe, 100K are going to die over a 1 year period. Yet they had only 1,722 death reports instead of 100K.
This means V-Safe is extremely unreliable for assessing deaths based on the death reports themselves. You could extrapolate from the 8% needing medical attention and say that the probability distribution function on severity would predict a two-orders-of-magnitude lower rate of death. But we don’t have good data on the probability distribution function for medical detention so that’s just a rough estimate. But 8%, two orders of magnitude lower, is consistent with the 1 per 1,000 hypothesis.
19. Ambulance service DOA calls per year
This is confirmation that governments are not sandbagging deaths. These are the real “DOA” calls of an ambulance service serving a stable population. These sorts of numbers are consistent with the 1 in 1,000 estimate.
20. Military stats
There were 29 deaths in 55K adverse event reports for the military, which is a little less than 1 death per 1,000 AEs per the graphic below.
The V-safe data shows 33% reported AEs.
So this suggests a death rate from the COVID shots of nearly 1 per 5,000 people (.89 per 5,000 to be more exact).
But I think the deaths and events may be taken from different databases.
21. US death database (MCOD)
56,000 excess deaths from PE alone and that’s just one adverse event!
See how the excess death didn’t go away when COVID stopped killing people in early 2022? That’s the smoking gun
22. Lack of autopsies
in general people didn’t want to know how many people were killed by the COVID shots. That’s why they didn’t do autopsies where they did the proper tests to find out whether someone was killed by the COVID shots or not.
This should have been done systematically in large cities and it wasn’t done at all.
So we shouldn’t be arguing about the data. We should be arguing about why nobody wanted to know the data.
Summary
There are more examples. These are just the ones off the top of my head.
I haven’t seen anybody publish a similar list, using an equally diverse set of sources that came to a different conclusion.
What do you think? Please share your own stories, especially if you know of death rates in LARGE groups where a death in the group is tracked and constant over time like pilots, police officers, firemen, healthcare workers, your church, your private adult living community, nursing homes, etc.
There were 3 sudden cardiac deaths in my extended family in 2022 through 2024. This includes perhaps 150 people. One was my father-in-law, age 83. He was not in great health, but was living independently in his house. Another was a healthy 58-year old 2nd cousin. The third was the 15-year old son of a second cousin. Both of these last two were in good health. I know of no other sudden deaths in my family in approximately the last 75 years.
In my circle of work colleagues, friend and family of say 100 people, 2 died suddenly/dropped dead, 3 turbo cancer (4 months - stage4 diagnosed to death) deaths, 1 autoimmune death (6 different doctors had no clue of why his ill health, and one pericarditis survival but required extensive operation (his activity level will never be the same as before).
That is a death rate of 6%, injury rate at 7%.
But too, wife of friend - female with reproduction area issues - health care worker with 3 shots. Injury?
Also, in my area, elderly persons requiring long-term care is suddenly up 10% according to a confidential health care center presentation. The problem presented is we do not have enough beds.