Cumulative death slope data from OWID shows very clearly that the vaccines didn't work

I plotted the cumulative death slope for every COVID wave in every country as a dot on an x-y axis. Then I fit a line through the dots. The line slopes up. That means the shots didn't work.

If the COVID vaccines worked to reduce risk of death, we’d expect that by March 2022, the slope of the cumulative deaths for COVID waves would flatten. So in the graph above, we’d have expected the red line to slope DOWN.

It slopes up.

Looks like the vaccines didn’t work as expected. Whoops.

More precisely

This plot is not a causal estimator. It is a population-level reconciliation check. If vaccination produced a very large realized mortality benefit across countries, especially the claimed 80-97% mortality reductions, one would expect some visible collapse in country-level COVID-death wave slopes after rollout. The all-country and highly vaccinated-country screens do not show that.

Process

I computed the slope of the cumulative deaths for each country for each COVID wave and plotted a dot representing the slope (y axis) and the middle of the COVID wave (x axis).

As you can see from the plot above, the slope got worse over time instead of dramatically better.

We can plot the top 25 most vaccinated countries:

We can plot the 25 least vaccinated countries:

Slope fit examples

Here are some examples of the slope fit algorithm for Czech Republic and US. We did this for every country with COVID death data in OWID.

Survey question