Very interesting article, but a few points stood out to me:
1. "HVE is zero. If there was any HVE, the first bar would be lower than all other bars. But the bars touch the lowest point many times in the first 30 days as can be seen from the MoH data." "For a safe vaccine, the first bar should be the highest by 25% or more and the other ba…
Very interesting article, but a few points stood out to me:
1. "HVE is zero. If there was any HVE, the first bar would be lower than all other bars. But the bars touch the lowest point many times in the first 30 days as can be seen from the MoH data." "For a safe vaccine, the first bar should be the highest by 25% or more and the other bars for the first 6 months should be about even."
Do you have examples of a relatively safe vaccine so we can see what HVE would look like? Being able to comparing normal HVE to this data would help to strengthen the argument and convince others, I think. Similarly, what is the maximum variation we would expect from HVE?
2. "Seasonality doesn’t cause death to double in 30 days as we can see above. And seasonality is never more than a 2x difference."
How do we know seasonality is never more than a 2x difference? What would a normal seasonality effect look like?
Very interesting article, but a few points stood out to me:
1. "HVE is zero. If there was any HVE, the first bar would be lower than all other bars. But the bars touch the lowest point many times in the first 30 days as can be seen from the MoH data." "For a safe vaccine, the first bar should be the highest by 25% or more and the other bars for the first 6 months should be about even."
Do you have examples of a relatively safe vaccine so we can see what HVE would look like? Being able to comparing normal HVE to this data would help to strengthen the argument and convince others, I think. Similarly, what is the maximum variation we would expect from HVE?
2. "Seasonality doesn’t cause death to double in 30 days as we can see above. And seasonality is never more than a 2x difference."
How do we know seasonality is never more than a 2x difference? What would a normal seasonality effect look like?
Thanks to anyone who clarifies this for me!