Yeah the black line shows deaths from all causes. It's based on the record-level data which doesn't have information about the cause of death. I haven't even found data for COVID deaths by vaccine brand.
It might be that the kind of people who were less likely to die of COVID were more likely to get vaccinated, so it might partially expla…
Yeah the black line shows deaths from all causes. It's based on the record-level data which doesn't have information about the cause of death. I haven't even found data for COVID deaths by vaccine brand.
It might be that the kind of people who were less likely to die of COVID were more likely to get vaccinated, so it might partially explain why the black line has such a huge spike during the COVID wave in November to December 2021. For example Uncle John Returns found that in the regions of England that later had the lowest percentage of vaccinated people, there was already higher COVID ASMR in 2020 before vaccination started: https://x.com/UncleJo46902375/status/1744742449036337365.
But during the COVID wave in November to December 2021, the increase in ASMR is also lowest for Moderna, slightly higher for Pfizer, and even higher for AstraZeneca and Janssen. During most months Moderna has higher ASMR than AstraZeneca, but in November and December 2021 the line for AstraZeneca rises clearly above Moderna. So it might indicate that Moderna had higher efficacy in preventing COVID deaths than AstraZeneca.
In my plot there's large differences in the background ASMR between vaccine types that remain in place even in late 2022, but I think the differences in the background ASMR are mostly explained by confounders. But the thing you should focus on is the difference between the background ASMR and ASMR during COVID waves. I now made another version of the plot which shows the ASMR as percentage of the total ASMR in the second half of 2022: sars2.net/czech2.html#ASMR_by_month_and_vaccine_type. So now the lines in my new plot are normalized relative to the background ASMR, so it emphasizes how Moderna had almost no increase in ASMR during the COVID wave in the last two months of 2021.
Yeah the black line shows deaths from all causes. It's based on the record-level data which doesn't have information about the cause of death. I haven't even found data for COVID deaths by vaccine brand.
It might be that the kind of people who were less likely to die of COVID were more likely to get vaccinated, so it might partially explain why the black line has such a huge spike during the COVID wave in November to December 2021. For example Uncle John Returns found that in the regions of England that later had the lowest percentage of vaccinated people, there was already higher COVID ASMR in 2020 before vaccination started: https://x.com/UncleJo46902375/status/1744742449036337365.
But during the COVID wave in November to December 2021, the increase in ASMR is also lowest for Moderna, slightly higher for Pfizer, and even higher for AstraZeneca and Janssen. During most months Moderna has higher ASMR than AstraZeneca, but in November and December 2021 the line for AstraZeneca rises clearly above Moderna. So it might indicate that Moderna had higher efficacy in preventing COVID deaths than AstraZeneca.
In my plot there's large differences in the background ASMR between vaccine types that remain in place even in late 2022, but I think the differences in the background ASMR are mostly explained by confounders. But the thing you should focus on is the difference between the background ASMR and ASMR during COVID waves. I now made another version of the plot which shows the ASMR as percentage of the total ASMR in the second half of 2022: sars2.net/czech2.html#ASMR_by_month_and_vaccine_type. So now the lines in my new plot are normalized relative to the background ASMR, so it emphasizes how Moderna had almost no increase in ASMR during the COVID wave in the last two months of 2021.