henjin on Steve Kirsch's newsletter

[henjin]

I bought access to the Czech batch safety paper and posted screenshots of it here: sars2.net/czech3.html#Batch_safety_study_by_authors_from_Palack_University.

In both the Czech batch study the number of doses per batch was the number of doses that had been released by the State Institute for Drug Control of the Czech Republic (SUKL), and in Schmeling et al.'s paper it was the number of doses "shipped from the Danish Serum Institute to all the Danish vaccination centers".

So it might partially explain why in the Czech study and Danish study newer batches tended to get a lower rate of deaths per dose than older batches, since newer batches had a lower percentage of doses administered out of doses shipped. (Even though there might of course also be older batches where all shipped doses didn't end up being administered, if for example the vials expired, or if the vaccination clinics switched from original vaccines to Omicron vaccines or from BA.1 vaccines to XBB.1.5 vaccines.)

I also downloaded the Czech batch safety data from the GitHub account of Palacký University, and I compared the ratio of deaths per doses shipped against an age-normalized excess mortality percentage for each batch in the record-level data. My correlation was about -0.01, so it was very close to zero.

However the batch data at GitHub didn't have information about the age of people who were reported to have died, so I wasn't able to adjust the rate of deaths per dose for age. And I also used doses shipped and not doses administered as my denominator. (Even though now that I think of it, I would be able to use the record-level data to calculate the number of doses from each batch that had been administered up to a given date. So maybe I'll have to redo my analysis.)