I think the issue doesn’t even need the “absurd results” test. Every day a person has x% chance of dying, depending on a huge list of factors (including simple bad luck). Probability of death has to be measured over a specific period of time; over 120 or so years the ACM rate for vaxed and unvaxed rises to 100%.
I think the issue doesn’t even need the “absurd results” test. Every day a person has x% chance of dying, depending on a huge list of factors (including simple bad luck). Probability of death has to be measured over a specific period of time; over 120 or so years the ACM rate for vaxed and unvaxed rises to 100%.
If you look at deaths over a month, including folks who were vaccinated during the middle of the month… well, they survived ~15 days unvaxed, then ~15 days vaxed… that isn’t comparing chance of death over the same time period. It’s like noting that the total life expectancy of the average 60 year old is higher than the life expectancy of everyone. Duh. If you hit 60, you didn’t die before then (at birth, as a child, etc.), so you are likely to live to an older age than the average for the population as a whole. But that 60th birthday party didn’t make you healthier.
Then you add in that critically ill folks generally are not eligible for vaccination due to their precarious state…. You need to compare over ACM over a set time period with the “intervention” occurring PRIOR to the measured period.
My understand - and correct me if I am wrong - is that the data we are talking about does not clearly do that - that there is no attempt towards equalization of the window of time within which ACM is measured in both groups (over x number of days in that status) nor any cleanup of the impact of ineligibility for vax for already critically ill.
I think the issue doesn’t even need the “absurd results” test. Every day a person has x% chance of dying, depending on a huge list of factors (including simple bad luck). Probability of death has to be measured over a specific period of time; over 120 or so years the ACM rate for vaxed and unvaxed rises to 100%.
If you look at deaths over a month, including folks who were vaccinated during the middle of the month… well, they survived ~15 days unvaxed, then ~15 days vaxed… that isn’t comparing chance of death over the same time period. It’s like noting that the total life expectancy of the average 60 year old is higher than the life expectancy of everyone. Duh. If you hit 60, you didn’t die before then (at birth, as a child, etc.), so you are likely to live to an older age than the average for the population as a whole. But that 60th birthday party didn’t make you healthier.
Then you add in that critically ill folks generally are not eligible for vaccination due to their precarious state…. You need to compare over ACM over a set time period with the “intervention” occurring PRIOR to the measured period.
My understand - and correct me if I am wrong - is that the data we are talking about does not clearly do that - that there is no attempt towards equalization of the window of time within which ACM is measured in both groups (over x number of days in that status) nor any cleanup of the impact of ineligibility for vax for already critically ill.