Your assessment is correct as far as it goes but doesn't give the full picture. In a 1000 patient practice 40% of them might be over 65 so at least 2 out of the 5 will be over 65. Out of those 2 how many would die anyway? For that we use the CDC's mortality rates for 2019 which shows that 20% of those over 65 die in any one year. If we m…
Your assessment is correct as far as it goes but doesn't give the full picture. In a 1000 patient practice 40% of them might be over 65 so at least 2 out of the 5 will be over 65. Out of those 2 how many would die anyway? For that we use the CDC's mortality rates for 2019 which shows that 20% of those over 65 die in any one year. If we multiply 2 by 20% we get 0.4 people per 1000. This number must therefore be deducted from the 5 per 1000 of your example because they were about to die anyway. If for the sake of easy calculation we say it's 0.5 per 1000 that's 10% of the 5 per 1000, so the lower bound would be 450,000 in your example. You might think that this elaboration is a waste of time because what's 10% between friends eh? But it is important because it squashes any hand waving by the covidians trying to claim that most of the 5 per 1000 were probably old and on the point of death anyway.
Your assessment is correct as far as it goes but doesn't give the full picture. In a 1000 patient practice 40% of them might be over 65 so at least 2 out of the 5 will be over 65. Out of those 2 how many would die anyway? For that we use the CDC's mortality rates for 2019 which shows that 20% of those over 65 die in any one year. If we multiply 2 by 20% we get 0.4 people per 1000. This number must therefore be deducted from the 5 per 1000 of your example because they were about to die anyway. If for the sake of easy calculation we say it's 0.5 per 1000 that's 10% of the 5 per 1000, so the lower bound would be 450,000 in your example. You might think that this elaboration is a waste of time because what's 10% between friends eh? But it is important because it squashes any hand waving by the covidians trying to claim that most of the 5 per 1000 were probably old and on the point of death anyway.