The only time it went below was in June 5th to July 27th, and then started declining below baseline from November 13th to November 27th before starting to increase again into Dec 4th, the last date available. That is not all of 2022. 2022 was not as bad as 2021 but a lot of people died in 2020 and 2021 so it would make sense for 2022 to show less excess deaths. Despite that, there were only those 2 periods that dropped below baseline. We will still have to see how much heart attacks and strokes increased in the 30 to 60 yr old's in 2022.
"COVID-19 vaccination rates in Eastern Europe have been consistently lower than those in Western Europe (for example, only 11.5% of the population in Bulgaria had received two vaccine doses by 1 July 2021, and this number only increased to 29.6% by the end of March 2022 [24]), meaning that the Alpha wave and especially the Delta wave encountered a much larger proportion of completely immunologically naive individuals in populations in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe, resulting in the observed disproportionally higher mortality in the former. Indeed, we find a strong inverse correlation between vaccination rates and excess mortality, in particular in 2021"
It’s not just a 1 month drop. Bulgaria had low all cause mortality throughout 2022 and into 2023.
The only time it went below was in June 5th to July 27th, and then started declining below baseline from November 13th to November 27th before starting to increase again into Dec 4th, the last date available. That is not all of 2022. 2022 was not as bad as 2021 but a lot of people died in 2020 and 2021 so it would make sense for 2022 to show less excess deaths. Despite that, there were only those 2 periods that dropped below baseline. We will still have to see how much heart attacks and strokes increased in the 30 to 60 yr old's in 2022.
"COVID-19 vaccination rates in Eastern Europe have been consistently lower than those in Western Europe (for example, only 11.5% of the population in Bulgaria had received two vaccine doses by 1 July 2021, and this number only increased to 29.6% by the end of March 2022 [24]), meaning that the Alpha wave and especially the Delta wave encountered a much larger proportion of completely immunologically naive individuals in populations in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe, resulting in the observed disproportionally higher mortality in the former. Indeed, we find a strong inverse correlation between vaccination rates and excess mortality, in particular in 2021"
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/10/11/1901